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A Villa v Zilina
By James Eastham
Last updated: 17:41 Thursday, December 4, 2008
Aston Villa v Zilina
This is one of those nightmare games for punters – the visitors are virtually unknown outsiders whose chances of progressing to the round of last 32 have already gone, so it’s difficult to know exactly what sort of Slovakian team is going to turn up at Villa Park for this Uefa Cup clash
Group F was always going to be an arduous challenge for MSK Zilina, as they found themselves in a pool with three big fish in Villa, Ajax and Hamburg – one-time European Cup winners each of them. The presence of that trio seemed certain to leave Dusan Radolsky’s minnows battling it out with Slavia Prague to avoid the wooden spoon - and that’s exactly how it’s panned out. Villa and Ajax head the group on six points, Hamburg have three points and Slavia and Zilina are left bringing up the rear with one point each. Hence the only obvious motivations for Zilina’s players as they make the trip to the Midlands are professional pride, plus the chance to put themselves in the shop window before the January transfer period.
Before you go backing Villa at 3/10, however, be aware that Martin O’Neill is certain to rest several regulars. They have a tricky trip to Goodison Park to face Everton on Sunday afternoon, which means players such as Gareth Barry, Gaby Agbonlahor and Ashley Young may sit this match out. The likes of Marlon Harewood, Moustapha Salifou and Nicky Shorey are all in line for a recall, which makes Villa less of a certainty than their odds-on price suggests.
Not that Zilina have any appeal at 11s. but a look at their Uefa Cup group results to date indicates that they’re no pushovers. They lost 2-1 at home to Hamburg in their opening match before suffering a 1-0 loss at the hands of Ajax in their second outing. Last week they got their first and only point when they drew 0-0 at Slavia Prague. Zilina have proved hard to break down in all games and, while Slovakia international Robert Jez is a highly-rated striker – he’s 8/1 to score anytime – goals have been in short supply, too. With Villa happy to do the bare minimum for victory, against visitors with a gift for keeping things tight, I’m surprised that unders is such a big-priced favourite in the 2.5 goals market. Unders is available at 9/8 while overs is as short as 73/100 – so the value, for me, clearly lies with the bigger-priced option. If you’re looking for a more speculative option, Villa to win 1-0 (13/2) and 2-0 (6/1) might also be considered – with Villa to win to nil at 10/11 another alternative.
1.5pts Villa v MSK Zilina Under 2.5 goals 9/8
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