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Spurs v Blackburn

By Simon Hopper
Another Draw at The Lane?

Last updated: 09:30 Sunday, November 23, 2008

Tottenham v Blackburn 13:30 Sun, SS1

A genuine basement battle, this, as two of the bottom three go head to head at White Hart Lane with both sides desperate to put defeats last time out behind them.

With Stoke (15th) & West Brom (20th) squaring off, as well as Newcastle (17th) heading to Stamford Bridge this weekend, a win for either Tottenham or Blackburn could see them gain significant ground on their relegation rivals and potentially take them 8 places up the league.

On paper, Harry Redknapp’s Spurs look by far the more likely side to do so (who are 4/5 to win here). Despite defeat at Fulham last weekend, Redknapp’s revolution has still been an unqualified success, with his full record now reading: P7 W5 D1 L1 F19 A10. The draw and defeat were both on the road: at home he boasts a flawless P4 W4 F12 A3, including two victories over high-flying Liverpool (2-1 & 4-2). And perhaps crucially, the hosts haven’t had the biggest workload from the midweek International games, with only Alain Hutton completing 90 minutes for Scotland, so they should be fresh for this one.

And they welcome a side who look to be in real trouble this season if they don’t start putting a run of results together soon. Paul Ince’s Blackburn are without a win in their last 7 league games and following the 2-1 defeat to Sunderland last weekend some firms have gone as short as 4/1 that the former Premiership Champions will be relegated in his first season in charge. Perhaps the most worrying aspect of their demise is that they are struggling at both ends of the pitch: just 14 goals mustered in 13 games is poor enough yet they also have the joint worst defence in the division, with 24 shipped already. Furthermore, their recent away record leaves a lot to be desired, with draws at Bolton & West Brom (0-0 & 2-2) sandwiched by defeat at Aston Villa (2-3) to leave them without an away win since September (they are a BP 4/1 to rectify that here).

Though Tottenham are actually down in 15th in a home league table (with 3 defeats from 6) we feel that their outlook has changed so much since Redknapp’s arrival that any significant analysis of their form in the Ramos era is unfair. And with the sides’ head-to-head record not pointing in either direction (with 3 draws in the last 4 meetings) the 4/5 you can get on the home side in the match odds looks the way to go here. Its hard to see how the visitors, who have the joint worst defence in the division (and just 1 clean sheet in their last 9) can keep out a Tottenham side who have averaged 3 a game at home under Redknapp and have their strikers in such great nick - Darren Bent has 5 in his last 3 games, with Frazier Campbell and Roman Pavlyuchenko both with 3 in their last 2. With just 14 goals scored in 13 themselves, there’s no guarantee they will be able to reply and at 4/5 back the Redknapp bandwagon to get back on track here.

Goals definitely look to be on the cards, with the hosts themselves keeping just 2 clean sheets in 13 domestic games this term, but over 2.5 is around 8/11 which doesn’t represent value given there is no guarantee Blackburn can take advantage of the shaky Spurs defence. Sticking with the match odds is advised.

Recommended Bets - 4 pts - Tottenham, 4/5

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