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Aston Villa v Man Utd
By Simon Hopper
Last updated: 11:03 Saturday, November 22, 2008
Which Aston Villa will turn up on Saturday?
Martin O’Neills side have had a seriously Jekyll & Hyde November after losing at Newcastle (0-2) & at home to Middlesbrough (1-2) before a convincing 2-0 win away to Arsenal last weekend – and in reality, the winning margin could have been even bigger. Those successive defeats came during a run of 8 games in just 22 days, but a weeks break before the game at the Emirates clearly did the first XI the world of good and a similar performance would mean the Champions having to be on their A game to secure three points at Villa Park.
This is especially true given O’Neill’s outstanding record against the big sides: he has only lost 5 of 15 league games against Arsenal, Liverpool & Chelsea and this season they have only lost at Stamford Bridge, with the Reds being held 0-0 at Villa Park and of course that outstanding result at the Emirates.
The Villains are actually only a point behind the Champions but Sir Alex Ferguson’s side have a game in hand and if they won that would be just 5 points from the summit having already visited the rest of the big four. And despite the defeat at Arsenal 2 weeks ago, the Devils have actually been in fine fettle recently with just the solitary defeat in their last 15 games and never got out of second gear when disposing of Stoke 5-0 last time out. Though on paper their away form leaves a question mark, with just 1 win in their last 5 on the road (leaving them 8th in an away table), bear in mind that 3 of these games were at Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. In fact, their record this season against non big four sides reads P9 W7 D2 L0 F22 A5 so it’s clear that their position of 3rd isn’t due to dropping too many points in these sorts of fixtures. In fact, they are unbeaten in their last 11 away games at non big –four sides.
Despite Villa’s outstanding win in North London and their league position of 5th, we feel United at 5/6 represent definite value to take this one. Two crucial factors influence this: the International mid-week fixtures and the visitors’ record against this opposition. While United have had Rio Ferdinand, Wayne Rooney & Wes Brown at Carrington all week to shake off their ‘knocks’, Villa have a host of first team regulars flying in from abroad for this one. Gareth Barry (90 mins), Gabby Agbonlahor (77), Ashley Young (13) & Curtis Davies (0) all went out to Berlin with England, while John Carew travelled to the Ukraine for Norway’s 1-0 defeat there. While United have also had players all over the place, with Ronaldo & Anderson playing in Brazil on Wednesday and Berbatov, Vidic, Carrick & Tevez also in action, they have a squad designed for situations exactly like this: Villa lack the resources to give their key players any respite. The Midlanders have drawn to Portsmouth (0-0) and lost to Stoke (2-3) following two International weeks this season and you just wonder if the 8 games in 22 days (including a trip to the Czech Republic) may just be too much for the home sides’ returning stars.
Furthermore, United have such a dominating record against Villa in recent times that it is scarcely believable. Sir Alex Ferguson’s side have won their last 14 consecutive games against this opposition (yes, 14) and their last 8 in a row at Villa Park – the last time they even dropped points here was in the 2001/02 season. The Villains haven’t actually triumphed over United since back in August 1995 and O’Neill’s reign has been more of the same, with 0-3 & 1-4 home defeats coupled with 1-3 & 0-4 setbacks at Old Trafford.
Given these factors, a price of 5/6 on United winning their 9th consecutive game on this ground looks fantastic value.
Recommended Bets - 4 pts - Man United, 5/6
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