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Belgium Grand Prix
By easyodds
Last updated: 09:59 Sunday, September 7, 2008
Spa-Francorchamps plays host to the 13th round of the Formula One World Championship this weekend, and what a crucial weekend it is set to be! Lewis Hamilton currently leads the Drivers Championship for six points from Felipe Massa, while Kimi Raikkonen will need a large slice of fortune to bring himself back into the reckoning, given that he sits a further seven points behind.
The Finn wont have completely lost faith however, as Spa is known to be one of his favourite tracks, and is one which plays right into the strengths of his Ferrari. Whether the Maranello outfit choose to put their weight behind Massa at this point is certainly a possibility – particularly in the event of a strong showing from Hamilton. Comments from Ferrari boss Stefano Domenicali suggest that this really is a make-or-break weekend for Raikkonen, when saying “If needed, Kimi will help Felipe. Before then, however, let’s see how things evolve”. That suggests to me that Kimi will be forced to play second-fiddle should he fall any further behind in the race, but will be granted freedom to race at least at Spa.
So onto the betting, and the bookies are struggling to split the three favourites – Sportingbet actually bet the three of them 2/1 each, while on the exchanges Hamilton currently trade at 3.3, Massa at 3.25 and Raikkonen at 3.4. It’s certainly the closest betting heat we have seen in Formula One for several decades.
After Raikkonen’s engine failure last week, he will have a new power-plant in his Ferrari, and that’s enough to convince me to side with the Finn to win on a circuit he loves. Kimi has won 17 races since 2003 – and no fewer than three of those have come at this track in 2004, 2005 and 2007 – he is unbeaten here since that 2004 victory given that 2006 had no Belgian GP. It’s a compelling argument, and at 12/5 Raikkonen looks the best value pick at this stage.
Further down the order, it difficult to imagine that Ferrari and McLaren wont fight out between themselves for the three podium slots, but Jarno Trulli could be worth a bet to minimum stakes to snatch a place in the top three in a race which looks highly likely to be wet. While Trulli isn’t necessarily considered one of the quickest men in the wet, it would certainly offer a potential to shuffle the pack up a little, and Toyota have proved themselves to be quicker than the Renault in recent weeks, and perhaps even on the pace of BMW. Quite why Heidfeld and Alonso are half the price of Trulli is something of a mystery.
As far as the points paying places are concerned, we should certainly be looking at the wet weather specialists to bolster our weekend staking plan, and Sebastien Vettel comes top of that list. The young Toro Rosso man has finally been given a competitive car, and has earned himself a move to the lead team for next season. He looks decent enough value at 6/5 to finish in the points – something he has managed in four of the last seven races. He’s imperious in the wet, and certainly offers us a decent chance to more than double our money.
Mark Webber is another who has shown himself to be a master when conditions are slippery, and at 7/4 he warrants a second look as well. Red Bull have lost their way a little since their early promise nearer the start of the season, and Webber has failed to score in his last four outings. However, with such a great chance of rain intervening, I’m willing to chance a small outlay on the Aussie getting back into form around Spa.
Last, but by certainly no means least, comes Jenson Button, who for me represents one of the bets of the season this weekend. Some of the prices around this week suggest that the weather forecasts haven’t been looked into just yet, and I’m sure if every bookmaker had taken a look at the heavy rain clouds currently predicted, then they would be falling over themselves to get out of the way of the Button money. Jenson is without doubt one of the quickest drivers in Formula One, and has been unfortunate to be stuck in a car unable to match his talents. When the rains come however, the playing field becomes far more level, as he showed in 2006 at Hungary, and at 9/2 he is simply far too big to finish in the points.
Recommended Bets
1pt Kimi Raikkonen to win at 12/5 (Betfair)
0.5pts Jarno Trulli to finish on the Podium at 16/1 (Bet365)
2pts Sebastien Vettel to finish in the Points at 6/5 (General)
1pt Mark Webber to finish in the Points at 7/4 (SportingOdds/Stan James)
4pts Jenson Button to finish in the Points at 9/2 (General)