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Coral Eclipse Trends

By Andy Newton

Last updated: 09:11 Saturday, July 5, 2008

Coral Eclipse Betting and Trends

Statistics

Verdict

So in the past 10 years this has been the Stoute, O’Brien and Godolphin show with one of those three big stables landing the spoils seven times, and with all of them strongly represented again this Saturday it’s surely odds-on that the trend will continue.

Stoute took the prize last year with Notnowcato, under a canny ride from Ryan Moore, and although the yard look set to be doubly-represented with Rob Roy and old boy Maraahal it will be a small shock if one of those wins the Group One.

Aidan O’Brien was been farming the top UK races in recent weeks, after dominating Royal Ascot and he bids to continue that form with Mount Nelson. He landed the Group One Criterium International over in France last season, but he’s not really taken that form into his campaign this year. He ran down the field in a couple of Group Threes before running fifth in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Based on that form he’s got a bit to find, but it’s significant that the Ballydoyle team have chosen him to go to war with after having several entries in the race.

Onto Godolphin, they have won this with Daylami and Refuse to Bend in the last decade and always have this race on their radar at the beginning of the season. They send out Literato, who was a revelation last season but has failed to shine so far this term. It will be foolish to rule this grey out despite two really poor runs at Nad Al Sheba and Lonchamp and he’ll at least com here fresh after a 48 day break. Campanologist looks their main hope after his all-the-way win at Royal Ascot in the Group Two King Edward VII Stakes. Yes, this is another step up, but he showed a willing attitude that day and the fact the boys in blue think him good enough to take on Group One company obviously means he’s come out of that race well.

Now looking at the key race trends over the past 10 runnings we’ll start to put some positives and negatives against the runners and see what we come up with.

8/10 runners were well fancied as they returned 8/1 or less. Obviously you will have to keep a close eye on the betting on the day here, but it’s safe to say that Phoenix Tower, Mount Nelson, Pipedreamer and Multidimensional will all be less than 8/1 and therefore have a positive tick against their name.

Next up a huge 80% ran at Ascot last time out at the Royal Meeting and although this applies to most of these, we can at least put a line through Literato and Rob Roy who where last seen out 48 and 49 days ago.

The ages seem to be a key stat too. This is one of the first races of the season when the younger horses can take on the older more experienced runners and over the last decade it’s the youngsters that have the edge. A huge 8/10 recent winners were aged either 3 or 4 years-old, which is good news if you like Literato (4), Mount Nelson (4), Phoenix Tower (4), Pipedreamer (4) or Campanologist (3).

7/10 winners were trained in the UK, but this trend is not really one to get too involved in as the only overseas handler sending a runner over is Aidan O’Brien and we all know his record in the race is second to none, with three wins - and if you add in the form of the yard at present it could be dangerous to completely rule out his runner Mount Nelson.

Finally, it’s worth noting that although the favourites don’t have the best of records, winning the race twice in the last 10 years, 50% of them were placed, so again it’s a case of watching the market and it could be that a place saver on the jolly might be the answer for you.

In conclusion, there’s a strong chance that the prize will again be heading to either Aidan O’Brien, Godolphin or Sir Michael Stoute but Henry Cecil is trying to spoil the party with his well-fancied pair Phoenix Tower and Multidimensional. The later was second in the Hardwicke stakes over 1m4f so I’m not sure if this drop in trip is ideal. His Phoenix Tower, for me, looks his better chance with age, form, and previous run all in his favour. His 4 length second to Duke of Marmalade in the Prince of Wales’ Stakes is one of the best bits of form on offer and although Pipedreamer was only a short head away in third that day I think the Cecil runner is a classier tougher animal and it will be a shock if he’s not in the shake-up coming up the final furlong hill.

Like I’ve said, Mount Nelson could be a dangerous one to take on with the yard in flying form, but on form he’s not done it for me this term and I think his price is slightly short and based on the stable rather than the his actual ability. The Stoute pair look up against it and at 6 and 7 years old they have it all to do to defy the age trend. So the final bet, at what looks a fair each-way price, is Campanologist. Yes, he’s up in grade but I think he looks a typical Godolphin improver and let’s not forget he won on his racecourse debut here at Sandown last August.

Recommended Bets - 2pts win – Phoenix Tower

Recommended Bets - 1pt e/w - Campanologist

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