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Everton vs Aston Villa
By Simon Hopper
Last updated: 09:33 Sunday, December 7, 2008
This promises to be a fascinating match-up as the two sides with the best credentials to break in the top four go head to head at Goodison Park.
Everton & Aston Villa, 7th & 5th respectively, are breathing down Arsenal’s neck and three points against their direct rivals for Champions League football is an enormous incentive to have in front of the Sky cameras on Sunday.
It didn’t look as if Everton would be 4 points from 4th in October but a superb run of just one defeat in their last 7 has launched them up the table and put them joint top of the form book with 13 points from a last 18 available. This form continued with a highly credible 1-0 win at resurgent Tottenham last Sunday, Harry Redknapp’s first home defeat in charge, and they even seem to have sorted out their home problems with no defeats in their last 4 at Goodison. However, the season-long injury picked up by Yakubu at White Hart Lane is a massive blow – with the injury prone Louis Saha also on the treatment table yet again, David Moyes is looking very short of options up front coming into the always hectic Christmas period.
Villa are also looking solid after that stunning 2-0 win at Arsenal being followed up with home 0-0 draws against Man United & Fulham: that’s no goals conceded in their last 3 and only 4 sides have conceded fewer goals than Martin O’Neill’s side this term. Their poor form last month (with defeats to Middlesbrough & Newcastle) can be attributed to a congested fixture schedule (6 games in 17 days) which has eased significantly in recent weeks, hence the upturn in results again. The Villains’ away record is also decent, with 4 wins from 7 and just 9 goals conceded on the road all season.
Traditionally, games between the two have been tight though Everton are yet to beat Villa with O’Neill at the helm – this fixture ended 2-2 last term and the draw is 12/5 this time, with the hosts a BP 33/20 and the visitors at 15/8.
The most important aspect of this fixture to consider could well be the absence of Yakubu as it makes under 2.5 goals at 8/11 even more appealing. Everton’s back line looks to be back to its best (remember this team let in just 33 goals all of last season), having conceded just 3 in their last 6 games and kept another clean sheet at White Hart Lane last time out. At home, under 2.5 backers would have been rewarded in the last 3 consecutive Goodison Park fixtures but with just 2 goals scored themselves in their last 3 matches, the Toffees look ready for a low scoring affair on Sunday. Villa have the 5th best defensive record in the division and didn’t conceded in either recent game with Arsenal or Man United which is a great omen coming here. However, they are also short of goals themselves with just 3 in their last 5 so everything looks set for a solid defensive day on Merseyside.
With two evenly matched teams squaring off you could also do much worse than back the draw at 12/5. Both sides look solid at present and with Villa’s small squad having played another UEFA Cup game on Thursday, they might just not quite be at their sharpest. But Everton only really have Victor Anichebe to turn to up front so the hosts lack their usual firepower and it would be no surprise to see both sides leave with a well-earned point.
Recommended Bets - 4 pts - Under 2.5 Goals, 8/11
Recommended Bets - 3 pts - Draw, 12/5