**** This is archived content **** - View Full Archive

Fulham v Arsenal

By Simon Hopper

Last updated: 09:34 Saturday, August 23, 2008

After an opening day defeat at the hands of new-boys Hull City, the prospect of a visit from Arsenal wouldn’t have been high on the agenda for Fulham manager Roy Hodgson.

Although it’s too early to be predicting another season of struggle for the Cottagers, there is a good chance they will be pointless after two games as Arsene Wenger’s side have always enjoyed their visits to this part of South-West London.

Fulham have lost 4 of their last 5 home fixtures to Arsenal, scoring just twice and shipping 12 goals in the process. This includes a 3-0 drubbing last season, with two goals inside the first 38 minutes from Emmanuel Adebayor making it a canter for the Gunners.

And while an away defeat at a side who are 1/3 for the drop is sure to deflate confidence, Fulham’s record at Craven Cottage will inspire downright pessimism among the fans. Last season saw them 19th in a home league table, winning just 5 of 19 games and only Derby conceding more goals on their own patch than Fulham (31 goals shipped). Three of these five wins came against sides who finished 16th or lower, with 4 defeats to all of the big four; in fact, Fulham took just 1 point in their 8 games against the superpowers last term.

So can Arsenal cruise to another Cottage victory? Well the injuries of Cesc Fabregas, Abou Diaby & Tomas Rosicky aren’t helpful, as demonstrated by a narrow 1-0 opening win over predicted strugglers West Brom. But coupled with their excellent record against this opposition, the Gunners also had the second best away form in the league last season, losing just 3 on the road (with 2 of these at the hands of Chelsea & Man United). They were also the joint top away scorers with 37 goals (an average of 1.95 per game), and only lost one game against a side in the bottom half of the table.

Tactically, Fulham are traditionally a very open outfit and started the Hull game with Simon Davies, Danny Murphy, Jimmy Bullard & Zoltan Gera in midfield. None of these are recognised ball winners and that leaves them very vulnerable to a fast counter-attack; step forward Arsenal. The Gunners have won multiple league titles by brutally exposing any side who don’t defend tight and in numbers, which Fulham are certainly guilty of. A long-term injury to the pacy Diomansy Kamara has also robbed them of their main attacking threat.

Overall, an Arsenal win seems to be on the cards, and we think the best way to profit from that is by backing a half-time/full-time prediction of draw/Arsenal win. Remarkably, Fulham were actually 11th in the ‘first half league table’ of last season; had every game ended on 45 minutes they would have accumulated 48 points! Of their 38 games last term, 18 were being drawn at H/T, the 4th highest in the league. So there is good reason to believe that Roy Hodgson’s side can put up decent resistance until at least the half-way stage. Moreover, Fulham’s H-T/F-T draw/defeat ratio is 16% at the Cottage (over the last 38 games), which is the joint highest in the division.

Arsenal are also second half specialists; a staggering 43% of their goals last term came in the last 20 minutes of games! Their second half performances would have put them 2nd in the table, going onto win 58% of their ‘second half’ matches & losing just 13%.

Especially with the early season rustiness shown by the Gunners first time out, they may not get into their stride until the second half so draw/Arsenal is the selection.

Recommended Bets - Half-Time/Full-Time, Draw/Arsenal, 7/2 Ladbrokes