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Fulham vs Man City
By Simon Hopper
Last updated: 09:14 Saturday, December 6, 2008
Man City could technically be in the bottom three were they to lose to Fulham on Saturday – and Roy Hodgson’s side should pose plenty of problems for the Sky Blues superstars in the lunch-time kick-off.
If there was an award for most under-rated manager in the Premiership then surely Hodgson would be high on the short-list – in just under a year he has taken the club from relegation certainties to the relative safety of 10th place and somehow put together one of the most formidable back-lines in the division.
Since a 0-1 defeat at Everton, the hosts are unbeaten in their last 4 games, conceding just twice in the process after keeping impressive clean sheets at both Aston Villa & Liverpool (0-0) in their last two outings. In fact, Fulham have conceded just 11 goals in 14 Premiership games to date – the 4th best record in the entire league.
And Craven Cottage has been turned into a fortress this season, with 5 wins from 7 (including a 1-0 win over Arsenal) and just 5 goals conceded in that time, a record which only Liverpool & Man United can better. They have won their last 3 home games on the spin, against Wigan (2-0), Newcastle & Tottenham (both 2-1) to lift them to 6th in the form table and if they win their game in hand the Cottagers would go 7th with almost half of the season gone – a remarkable feat in itself.
Much of this can be accredited to the stability of the side – 9 of the first team have appeared in all 14 league games to date, with the core back five of Mark Schwarzer, John Pantsil, Aaron Hughes, Paul Konchesky & the towering Brede Hangeland clearly knowing each others games inside out.
This is in complete contrast to City, arguably the league’s most inconsistent side and with an awful away record to boot. The Citizens are yet to register consecutive wins in the league and an awesome display in a 3-0 drubbing of Arsenal was followed up with a 0-1 reverse in the Manchester Derby that in reality was a one-sided affair with City recording just one shot on target all game. More worrying for this one is that most of their problems lie away from home: they would lie 16th in an away table with just 1 win from 7 on their travels and only 2 points collected from a last available 15. With 14 goals conceded in those 7 games, only Stoke & Blackburn have shipped more on the road than City and just 34% of their total league goals have come away from Eastlands.
Obviously it is always risky to get involved in the match odds with City, a true Jekyll & Hyde side, but on this occasion we feel that Fulham at 7/4 represent great value to take another home three points here. City remain in awful form (16th in the form table) and they are running their poor away record into the 3rd best home side in the division. Furthermore, Fulham will have had a solid 7 days rest after their draw with Villa while City have played PSG just 3 days before this one, their 5th game in 14 days. Under 2.5 goals would usually also be recommended with Fulham at home, but City remain the 2nd top scorers in the league and are capable of scoring against anyone on their day so sticking with the match odds looks to be the safest route.
Recommended Bets - 4 pts - Fulham, 7/4