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King George Trends

By Andy Newton

Last updated: 09:45 Saturday, July 26, 2008

King George Odds

• 10/10 - Returned 13/2 or less
• 9/10 - Placed last time out
• 8/10 - Came 1st or 2nd last time out
• 8/10 - Won by a 3 or 4 year-old
• 7/10 - Had a RRP of 130+
• 6/10 - Won their previous race
• 6/10 - Won by the favourite
• 4/10 - Trained in Ireland
• 3/10 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
• 3/10 - Ridden by Mick Kinane
• 3/10 - Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
• 3/10 - Favourites placed
• 2/10 - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
• 2/10 - Ridden by Johnny Murtagh



Ok so here we go again! Another Group One and with that means another high profile raid by arguably the best trainer in the world at present Aidan O’Brien! The Ballydoyle handler has now scooped 13 Group One races this season and after dominating Royal Ascot and landing the Coral Eclipse a few weeks back he’s poised to add to that tally in the King George this Saturday.

Most of the pre-race talk has surrounded the fact that the best 3 year-olds at the moment are more likely to miss this race. In the past it was almost a dead-cert that the Epsom Derby winner would take in this race, before a tilt at either the Arc or St Leger, but in recent years the younger generation have been absent. So why is that the case? Well the season for the best young flat horses is now a lot longer and a lot more international. The amount of valuable races around September, October and November around the world has increased and to keep the young horses on the go from May till November is near-on impossible - and so it seems the King George is the main high-profile race that’s suffered from that point of view.

So once again we’ve got no 3 year-olds in the line-up, and although it would have added to the spice of the race had we seen Derby winner New Approach in the field the race is still one to savour. Yes, it’s not going to be the best renewal of the past decade but with last year’s Leger winner Lucarno, Arc runner-up Youmzain and Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner Duke of Marmalade in the line-up we should still be in for a cracker.

Looking back over recent runnings the Godolphin team have farmed this contest, winning it three times in the last decade, but after pulling out their only intended runner Literato on Thursday the boys in blue won't have a runner and will therefore dent their good recent record.

Aidan O’Brien took the race 12 months ago with the talented Dylan Thomas and with at least three runners (Macarthur, Red Rock Canyon and Duke of Marmalade) he could even go close to having two of the three in the frame! The Duke is, of course, his main hope after winning his last three races - including the Group One Prince of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal Meeting, but with Macarthur winning the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes he's certainly no back numbers, while if we're all honest Red Rock Canyon is only in the race to ensure it's a truly run affair - like he did for 'The Duke' in the Prince of Wales's

Most of the focus for those willing to take-on his main runner Duke of Marmalade is the question mark as to whether he’ll stay his extra trip. He’s yet to run over this 1m4f distance, but although some pundits have said he didn’t beat much at Ascot last time he wasn’t stopping at the end of the race and if the ground stays on the fast side (which it should) then I’m confident he’ll get the trip.

If we look at some key trends then things looks good for the first two in the betting (Duke of Marmalade and Youmzain) as 10/10 recent winners have returned 13/2 or less. However, just quickly on Mick Channon’s Youmzain – he’s clearly a top-notch animal having run Dylan Thomas so close in the Arc and then running second in the Coronation Cup and then winning the Group One Grand Prix de Saint Cloud last month, but for me I’m not convinced the Channon horses are actually in that good form at present. The stable have had a number of short-priced favourites beaten on the track in recent weeks (2/5 fav Thurs at Bath) and although these have been nowhere near the class of Youmzain it’s still worth mentioning as these things can often spread across the yard.

Next up on the trends is that 9/10 were placed last time out, which puts a line through Ask and Literato, while 6/10 winners actually won their previous race which is good news for Lucarno, Duke of Marmalade, Macarthur and Youmzain.

3 and 4 year-olds have the best record if we look at the horse’s ages - with 8/10 winning from that bracket. So with no 3 year-olds in the race this points to all the 4 year-olds – Duke of Marmalade, Lucarno, Macarthur, and Petra Bay.

There are plenty of other trends, but I think the final most significant one in recent running is that the favourite has landed 6/10 - including the last four runnings. Again, this is great news if you fancy the clear hot-pot Duke of Marmalade.

So in conclusion, for me, it’s going to take a good-one to beat Aidan O’Brian’s Duke of Marmalade. I can’t see a problem with the trip and with the stable so far clear of the other big yards at present it’s hard not to see them being confident he’ll win this too. I’m not keen on Youmzain, mainly because of the stables poor form, but at double-figure odds I wouldn’t put anyone off backing the other O’Brien horse Macarthur. He looks likely to get the trip, having won over course and distance last time out, and although this is a step-up in grade he was only around a 1 ½ lengths behind Youmzain in the Coronation Cup two runs ago.

Finally, Lucarno is interesting around the 8/1 mark. He landed the St Leger last year so will certainly get the trip and you might just see Jimmy Fortune employ similar tactics to their win at Newmarket last time when he stole the race from the front. By doing this again it will stretch the stamina of the favourite and although on this faster ground he’s more likely to get outpaced in the closing stages he could easily plug on for a place, as he’s already got the beating of Sir Michael Stoute’s quirky Papal Bull – while if any rain comes his chance will increase ten-fold.





Recommended Bets - 4pts win – Duke of Marmalade

Recommended Bets - 1pt e/w – Macarthur

Recommended Bets - 1pt e/w – Lucarno


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