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Macedonia v Scotland

By James Eastham

Last updated: 00:00 Monday, January 1, 0001

Macedonia v Scotland, Saturday live on Setanta1 at 14:00

Low goals is the way to go when Macedonia meet Scotland in Europe’s Group Nine World Cup qualifier in Skopje on Saturday afternoon.

Scotland’s lack of firepower was patently obvious when George Burley’s side drew 0-0 away to Northern Ireland in their friendly last month, with James McFadden and Kenny Miller firing blanks together up front. Burley admitted after the match that the pair “lacked that little bit of cutting edge”, and although McFadden has netted on some big occasions for Scotland in the past, he’s far from a natural finisher. The chances of Scotland scoring here aren’t helped by the fact that would be delighted with a point, so I would not be surprised to see the visitors adopt a defensive strategy.

Goals are rarely in plentiful supply when Macedonia play at home or when Scotland play on the road. Only two of the hosts’ six home qualifiers for Euro 2008 and just one of Scotland’s away fixtures in the same qualifying series had over 2.5 goals, another strong pointer to this being a low-scoring encounter.

A further factor is the weather – temperatures close to 30 degrees are being predicted by the time the game kicks off in the Macedonian capital. Under 2.5 is 13/20, which is fine for us – but if that odds-against price is too short, consider under 1.5 goals at 15/8.

In the match betting, the home side are 11/5, Scotland 29/20 and the draw 12/5. Macedonia’s home record is nothing special, but they’re an improving side on their own patch – they were unbeaten through in final three home Euro 2008 qualifiers, drawing 1-1 with Estonia before seeing off Andorra 3-0 and recording their most impressive home result of the last couple of years on their last outing, beating Croatia 2-0. Having finished the campaign so strongly, Macedonia will go into this fixture with plenty of confidence – so why are they an odds-against price in the Draw No Bet market? It looks too big to us – so snap up the 5/4.

Recommended bets:

1pt Macedonia Draw No Bet 5/4

1pt Under 2.5 goals 13/20