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Man Utd v Chelsea
By James Eastham
Last updated: 13:21 Sunday, January 11, 2009
Man Utd v Chelsea
If the ‘league within a league’ between the Big Four sides is to decide the outcome of this season’s Premier League title race, then neither of these two sides can afford to drop any more points against bitter rivals.
Chelsea and Manchester United have collected just a point apiece from three games in the mini-league – and they were earned when the two sides drew 1-1 at Stamford Bridge on September 21. By contrast, Liverpool and Arsenal have both picked up seven points from a possible nine – so the outcome here could prove crucial.
United’s 1-0 defeat in the first-leg of their Carling Cup semi-final at Derby on Wednesday night would have normally affected their confidence – but since the side that played at Pride Park was a scratch line-up I don’t expect their loss to have too much impact. In league games Sir Alex Ferguson’s side have been a much stronger proposition – they are unbeaten in seven since a 2-1 defeat at the Emirates last November (W5-D2-L0) and have kept clean sheets in all seven outings.
Not that Chelsea are short of their own credentials, however – they arrive on a 20-match unbeaten run on the road comprising 16 wins and four draws. It’s become increasingly apparent Felipe Scolari’s side are happier away than at home – perhaps because so much of their attacking play derives from the full-backs and suits hurting teams on the break. Jose Bosingwa and Ashley Cole will have major roles to play if the Blues are to pick up points, but Cristiano Ronaldo and Wayne Rooney ought to ensure they have fewer opportunities to push forward than usual.
The prices are much as you’d expect – United are 13/10, Chelsea 11/4 and the draw 11/5. Yet there’s little evidence to support United winning, even on home soil. In the Roman Abramovich era, United have beaten their rivals from down south just twice in 11 attempts and their record at Old Trafford reads W2-D1-L2. They were fortunate that this fixture last season fell at a time when Chelsea were in disarray (Avram Grant’s first match in charge) but they’ll be afforded no such luxury this weekend, even though the visitors aren’t in the best of spirits.
The draw as the outsider of three looks the best match bet to me, because this encounter is simply too close to call. But goals look a better bet – since, historically, clashes between these sides tend to be low-scoring and United have problems in front of goal at the moment. Those last 11-head-to-head encounters have furnished just 20 goals (1.82 a game) – and if the 7/10 on under 2.5 goals is too short you, consider that under 2.25 would have netted you a profit eight out of 11 times. That’s my recommendation on this match at 17/20 – since I don’t see three goals being scored.
The usual suspects head the goalscorer market – Cristiano Ronaldo (7/4), Wayne Rooney (21/10), Dimitar Berbatov (12/5), followed by Didier Drogba, Carlos Tevez and Nicolas Anelka (11/4), are the leading contenders to find the net. It’s difficult, though, to back any of them with confidence. Anelka hasn’t scored in his last three outings and Drogba has managed just one in his last five appearances – while United as a team have netted just five times in five league games. I’ll be swerving the player markets in what looks likely to be a low-scoring encounter.
Recommended Bets - 2pts Under 2.25 goals 17/20