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Man Utd v Sunderland

By James Eastham

Last updated: 09:15 Saturday, December 6, 2008

Man Utd v Sunderland, 17:30 Sat, Setanta 1

Man Utd v Sunderland

The last venue you want to visit when you've picked up just three points from a possible 21 is Old Trafford but that's exactly the fate that awaits Sunderland this weekend.

The Black Cats @20/1 to win the Saturday tea-time clash are enduring their worst run of results since returning to the top flight 18 months ago, with Roy Keane's now gone things are looking pretty grim at the North-east club. The Wearsiders managed to nick a point (0-0 draw) in Stretford three seasons ago but otherwise their record during the Premier League era has been one of uninterrupted misery: United @ 1/5 to pick up three points - have won the remaining six head-to-heads, scoring 19 goals and conceding just one in the process.

In any case, it's foolish to back against United at home no matter who the opposition: their record of 22 wins in 25 home games (their other results were two draws and a defeat) since the start of last season is peerless, and underlines why it's too early to rule them out of the title race. They've averaged 2.6 goals a game during that period, conceding just 11 (0.44 a game) in total - figures which support anybody looking to back United with a -2-goal start on the Asian handicap at 39/40. Given United's even more impressive supremacy over Sunderland in head-to-head clashes 2.42 goals per game across seven meetings - you might be tempted to grab a slightly bigger price by backing United with a -2.25 start at 59/50.

It's increasingly difficult to find any way other than the handicap of backing United at home, especially when the price on the W-W double result is as short as 8/15. Results such as United's 4-0 win over West Brom in October, when they eventually ran out comfortable winners but were held 0-0 at the break, warn me away. I'd rather take a bigger price on United racking up a clear winning margin over 90 minutes than back them to make a bright start against visitors determined to keep a clean sheet as long as possible.

A more speculative market - but one not without statistical foundation is on a goal coming from the 77th minute onwards. The price is 10/11 the same as it is for the last goal coming before the 77th minute and yet four of United's six home games have featured at least one goal after that point. Significantly, United's games against the Premier League's weaker visitors tend to feature more late goals, evidenced by the fact they struck in the 77th minute v Bolton (2-0), the 90th against West Brom (4-0) and the 84th and 89th against Stoke (5-0). United's desire and ability to increase their lead after the points are safe persuade me to back a late goal at the price available.

3pts United -2-goal start on the Asian handicap 39/40

1pt Time Of Last Goal 77+ minutes 10/11