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Tonight's London Derby
By James Eastham
Last updated: 17:12 Monday, December 8, 2008
West Ham v Tottenham Betting Odds
West Ham are looking to build on improved recent form when they host Tottenham at Upton Park on Monday night.
The knives were out for Gianfranco Zola as the Hammers lost five of six games in October and early November but a win and two draws in their last three outings has stopped the rot. In contrast, Harry Redknapp's Spurs turn up needing an injection of confidence because their manager's Midas touch, so visible during his first few month in charge, has gone missing in the past couple of weeks. Spurs' 1-0 win over Blackburn on November 23 was sandwiched in between two defeats, against Fulham (2-1) and Everton (1-0).
The reversal in fortunes for the clubs in questions makes the result difficult to call: will West Ham continue their improving run, or will Spurs rediscover the style that earned them victories over Bolton (2-0), Man City (2-1) and Liverpool (2-1)? The bookies are finding it equally difficult to separate the pair, with both clubs a best-priced 7/4 a couple of days away from the game, and the draw 12/5. The truth is I'm not comfortable backing either side at the moment, since Zola's ideas have yet to truly take hold among his players while Redknapp is slowly coming to terms with the deficiencies within his squad as well.
The question of goals is equally hard to answer: Zola's first three games all had over 2.5 goals but as he realised his team needed to defend better he tightened things up and seven of the last eight have had under 2.5, with each of the last three having under 1.5. Spurs' matches have headed in a similar direction: the first four games under Redknapp all featured three goals or more, but the last two have had under 1.5 goals. After euphoric starts, both bosses are taking a more cautious approach.
Given the recent reduction in the number of goals it's no surprise to see under 2.5 goals and over 2.5 goals are both priced up at 19/20. I'm inclined to swerve both - but with doubts over the outcome of the match, too, and you're left with very few betting opportunities.
The more creative you get, however, the more betting opportunities emerge, and the best is tucked away in the Team To Score First market. Tottenham have conceded first in six of their seven away trips and five of eight games at White Hart Lane this season; one of the worst records in the Premier League. By contrast, West Ham are far better at scoring first, having done so in four of seven home matches. Those stats indicate a touch of value about the price of 21/20 on the hosts scoring the first goal of the game - making it my selection in an extremely tight match.
Recommended Bets - 1pt West Ham To Score First 21/20