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Becher Chase Preview

By Andy Newton

Last updated: 09:37 Sunday, November 23, 2008

Becher Chase Betting

Becher Chase (Handicap) - Listed 3m 2f

Statistics

• 7/10 - Placed in their last run
• 6/10 - Carried 10-12 or less
• 6/10 - Aged either 9 or 10 years-old
• 4/10 - Returned a double-figure price
• 3/10 - Trained by Paul Nicholls
• 3/10 - Ran at Aintree last time out
• 2/10 - Won by the favourite




Andy's Verdict





A real treat for racing fans this Sunday as its Becher Chase time again, a gruelling 3m2f contest over the Grand National Fences at Aintree.

Most of the big weekend races these days seem to revolve around a certain Mr Nicholls and this Sunday’s affair is no different! The Somerset handler has landed this event in three of the last four runnings, including 12 months ago with this year’s likely jolly Mr Pointment. As we all know course form here at Aintree, especially over these unique fences is probably the biggest single positive a runner here can have here, so despite the fact he’s since been pulled-up in the Grand National last April - the fact he’s won over course and distance makes him one to fear. He’s only got another 1lb to carry than last year and with the soft ground conditions also to his liking he’ll be very popular. However, his reappearance run at Chepstow last month wasn’t very encouraging (6th of 12) and, for me, it might just take a few more runs before he see the best of him again.

The Nicholls other runner, Gungadu, could challenge Mr Pointment for the favourites berth, and that shows the strength in-depth that Mr Nicholls has on the contest. He’s another high-class individual from the best jumps stable in the land, and although he had a rather up and down campaign last year a horse that can count the Racing Post Chase amongst his haul of wins is an animal that should be respected. It’s worth noting, however, that he’ll have the most weight to lump round with 11-12 and although he’s got the frame for that; what’s more interesting to me is that his only two visits here to Aintree have resulted in very poor efforts (5th of 5 & 7th of 12) – indicating this flatter track might not be to this ‘out and out stayers’ liking.

For such a competitive race the 10 year trends don’t have too many ‘jump off the page stats’ and being a similar contest to the Grand National (where there’s loads of trends) it’s a bit surprising. That said, there are still a few past pointers we can apply and hopefully that might at least rule a few out.

First up, like I’ve mentioned, Mr Nicholls has taken this race three times in the last four years and therefore his two fancied runners, Mr Pointment and Gungadu have plenty going for them, while with one of these looking sure to go off favourite then the 2/10 trend, or 20%, of market leaders that have been successful is also a positive for their supporters. It’s also interesting that two of Nicholls’ past winners have carried big weights, Mr Pointment (11-5) and Eurotrek (11-7), so I wouldn’t necessarily let the weight stat of ‘6/10 winners carrying 10-12 or less’ totally put you off his pair - who have 11-6 and 11-12 respectively to carry.

What, however, is a worry if you fancy last year’s winner to follow-up is that 7/10 winners were placed in their previous race. Mr Pointment could only manage a poor sixth last month at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance, and like I’ve already alluded to might need a bit more time. Mr Gundadu, on the other hand, ran a respectable third last time at Ascot, under a big weight, in what looked a decent contest (won by Roll Along) and therefore of the pair if you do fancy Nicholls to keep up his good record in the race he might be the better option.

Next up, on the trends front, is to look at their ages. 6/10 won this affair at either 9 or 10 years-old, and with plenty either too young or too old then you can use this stat to knock a few out.

Away from the Nicholls pair - if we apply these simple, weight, age and placed last time out stats then you are only actually left with TWO – Idle Talk and A New Story! The first-named was 14th in the Grand National back in April, so at least has some experience of the fences, and after a fifth in the Kim Muir last season and a recent second at Carlisle then he looks on a good mark and could go very well indeed. The later, A New Story, is also no stranger to these obstacles, after running fifth in this race 12 months ago, and after three promising runs already over in Ireland this season Michael Hourigan’s 10 year-old might be worth an each-way interest – however, it’s worth noting that, although I can see him running into a place, he’s not actually won a race since 2005, a massive 33 runs ago!




Recommended Bets - 2pts e/w – Idle Talk

Recommended Bets - 1pt e/w – A New Story



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