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Old Newton Cup
By Simon Hopper
Last updated: 14:29 Tuesday, July 1, 2008
The Old Newton Cup has come around again with Luca Cumani looking to claim the valuable handicap for the third time in five years.
He saddles Mad Rush this time around, who is sure to be a hot favourite, and given the horses form and the trainer’s record in the race there are many similarities to be found with Royal Hunt Cup jolly Bankable.
But can this good thing be turned over as well? Clearly Cumani knows how to get his charges round Haydock and Mad Rush had many of these behind him in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot (the 3rd, 4th 7th & 9th finishers all run again here).
He was second by a neck to front-runner Sugar Ray that day and in fact hasn’t been out of the top three in all six career starts.
Age is also a positive, as the last 10 renewals have all been won by 4 or 5yos.
Granted, he is on a career high mark now but his Royal Ascot form this year coupled with a gallant second off a big weight in a Newmarket handicap would suggest there is more in the tank for this lightly-raced Sadler’s Wells relation.
Andrew Balding’s Buccellati is looking at the Melbourne Cup long-term and is clearly a class animal who should provide the biggest danger. However, all of his impressive victories to date have been off less than 9 stone and perhaps this massive increase (to 9st 7lbs) may just get the better of him.
As a result, a quote of 4/1 is a sound price on Mad Rush and he is the main selection.
Those looking for an each-way shout could do far worse than Mark Johnston’s Record Breaker. In the last 10 years, no horse has won the Newton carrying more than 9st 3lbs (yes, Mad Rush is 4lbs above this but his other positives allow us to overlook this). So getting in on bottom weight (9st) is clearly a huge bonus. He is also a 4yo which as we discussed is a fine age for the race and won a Musselburgh handicap off 7lbs more than Saturday’s weight. He clearly has to step up markedly from his second at Ayr last month but he has won over a furlong further than this and the low weight should see him able to burn off most of these in the dying stages.
One last very small nibble could be considered on Barry Hills’ One Last Drop. He is the market outsider but enjoyed a fine 3yo campaign and was second in the St Leger two years ago. Granted his form has been non-existent since he placed in an Ascot Group 3 last year but there was clearly something wrong with him when dead last in May’s Ormonde and as a result is in on bottom weight here. It is a risk but if back to his best the 33/1 quotes floating around are far too big.
Recommended Bets - Mad Rush, 4/1 General
Recommended Bets - Record Breaker, 20/1 E/W, Bet365
Recommended Bets - One Last Drop, 33/1 E/W, General
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