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Scottish National Trends

By Andy Newton

Last updated: 07:38 Saturday, April 19, 2008

Scottish Grand National Betting

Scottish Grand National (Handicap) 4m 1f - Ayr

Statistics

• 10/10 - Trained in the UK
• 9/10 - Finished in the top 5 last time out
• 8/10 - Ran no more than 48 days ago
• 7/10 - Returned a double-figure price
• 7/10 - Carried 11-2 or less
• 6/10 - Won by an 8 year-old
• 6/10 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
• 3/10 - Trained by Ferdy Murphy
• 2/10 - Won by the favourite or joint-favourite

Verdict

The trends have served us well in recent weeks after we landed the first and second in the Grand National a few weeks back – I just hope you all got on!

Next up is the Scottish version of the gruelling race and although a slightly shorter trip (4m), than the Aintree showpiece, the race is likely to be run at a fair pace and because of this it will probably feel more like 6 miles to the horses and jockeys when nearing the lollypop.

When looking at this race earlier in the week the ground was expected to be on the soft side, which would have suited more of the runners than not, but drying ground over the last few days will see the going more likely to be nearer good - a lot faster than thought! With this in mind Welsh National winner Miko De Beauchene might be the most inconvenienced, while the faster conditions will certainly playing into the hands of Ferdy Murphy's runner Noir Et Vert.

Anyway onto the trends – First thing to note is that all of the last 10 winners were trained in the UK, so based on this we can put a line through any raiders from the Emerald Isle, with Tony Martin looking the only Irish trainer likely to have runners.

The next key stat is that a massive 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top five in their previous races. This puts positives next to the likes of Halcon Genelardais (4th), Miko De Beauchene (2nd), Old Benny (1st) and Noir Et Vert (4th), but puts negatives next to the likes of Opera Mundi and Butler’s Cabin (F).. We can also take this trend a tad further with 6/10 winners having actually finished 1st,2nd or 3rd in their previous run.

70% of the last 10 winners returned at a double-figure price, which puts a line through a lot of the well-fancied runners like Miko De Beauchene, Old Benny and Halcon Genelardais, but this trend has to be taken with a pinch of salt as 2/10 races were in fact won by the market leader.

Next up is the weight with 7/10 winners having carried 11-2 or less. If Halcon Genelardais takes his chance this will keep the weights down for the others, but with 11-12 himself to carry he’ll do well to lump that round in this ground.

‘Days last ran’ is another stat that should be noted with 8/10 winners running no more than 48 days before going on to win this, and if you use this trend then Paul Nicholls’ Opera Mundi (84 days) looks to be the main sufferer.

Eight year-olds seem to have the best record winning 6 of the last 10 renewals which is good news if you fancy Miko De Beauchene (8), Halcon Genelardais (8) and Butler’s Cabin (8), but not, if you like the look of Opera Mundi (6) and Old Benny (7).

Finally as I’ve mentioned it’s worth noting the record of Ferdy Murphy in this race in recent years – having won it 3 times in the last decade. He looks set to have at least two runners (Noir Et Vert and Leading Man) and based on this alone those runners are well worth a second look.

So, in summary the runners that stand out are Old Benny based on the excellent recent record of winners of the contest he landed at the festival and although his age is slightly against him he’s trained in the UK, has a decent weight, ran less than 48 days ago, has won over the distance, acts on heavy ground and came in the first three last time out. Another of the fancied ones in Miko De Beauchene also catches the eye fitting all of those same trends - while he’s also in the better age group at 8 years-old as he bids to do the Welsh/Scottish National double

Finally, it’s hard to leave out the Murphy runners. The drying ground has helped Noir Et Vert and although out of the handicap is feared. His age (7 years-old), however, might be slightly against him so it might be worth taking a chance, of what looks the lesser of his pair, in Leading Man with age, form, trainer and weight all positives for this one.

Recommended Bets - 2pts e/w - Old Benny

Recommended Bets - 2pts e/w - Miko De Beauchene

Recommended Bets - 1pt e/w - Leading Man

Long Handicap: Old Benny 9-12, Patsy Hall 9-12, Wild Cane Ridge 9-11, Mon Mome 9-8, Kilbeggan Blade 9-8, Flintoff 9-7, Newbay Prop 9-5, Openide 9-5, Philson Run 9-4, Tommy Spar 9-4, Sweet Diversion 9-3, Ossmoses 9-3, Irish Wolf 9-1, Leading Man 9-1, Noir Et Vert 9-1, Beat The Boys 9-5, Dunbrody Millar 9-0, The Dark Lord 9-0, Not Left Yet 9-0, Kandjar D'Allier 9-0, Burntoakboy 8-13, Royal Emperor 8-12, Martha's Kinsman 8-11, Dr Hart 8-10, Royal Rosa 8-10, Azulejo 8-10, Bubble Boy 8-7, Model Son 8-7, Big Rob 8-6, Another Rum 8-3, Iris De Balme 8-2, Strong Resolve 8-0, Bengo 7-13, In The Loop 7-11

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