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Wigan v Everton
By Simon Hopper
Last updated: 15:27 Monday, November 24, 2008
How have some firms priced up Everton as underdogs to win this game?
A BP 15/8 really does seem too big on the visitors for Monday’s televised action at the JJB. Wigan are in the middle of an awful run of form, with just 1 win in their last 8 games in all competitions and it took a last minute Titus Bramble header to salvage a 2-2 draw at Newcastle last time out and keep them out of the drop zone by the skin of their teeth. They are down in 16th in the form guide and even more worryingly have won just 1 of 6 home games to date, scoring a paltry 3 goals in the process making them the lowest home scorers in the entire division. Home defeats to Middlesbrough (0-1) & Aston Villa (0-4) followed by a bore draw against Stoke (0-0) means that only Blackburn now have a worse home record than Steve Bruce’s side and another defeat here could plunge them even further into the relegation mire.
Conversely, Everton have finally found their stride since that 1-1 draw with Manchester United and are currently on a 5 game unbeaten run with 3 wins from their last 4. David Moyes’ side are 4th in the form table with successive wins against Bolton (1-0), Fulham (1-0) & West Ham (3-1) followed by a 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough taking them up to 7th and just 4 points from a Champions League spot. The Toffees’ away form is also very solid, with 4 wins from 6 putting them 4th in an away table and they have recorded consecutive wins over Bolton & West Ham in their last 2 trips on the road.
So the form guide points to Everton, how about the head-to-head record? Again, the visitors have lost just 1 of 6 games against this opposition since Wigan’s promotion in 2005/06, the full record reading: P6 W3 D2 L1 F9 A6. At the JJB it is even better, with David Moyes unbeaten here in 3 outings, with 2 wins and a draw including a 2-1 victory here last season.
With Tim Cahill, Marouane Fellaini & Steven Pienaar all expected to shake off knocks (and with their International players having 5 days to recover from their games abroad) we really cant see any reason why Everton shouldn’t be favourites to win this game. The form guide, head-to-head records and ability of the players all point to the visitors and it’s difficult to find any positives to support the hosts. The 15/8 offered by a couple of firms may go before kick-off so we would advise you to take that price asap.
Another decent bit of value looks to lie in an Everton Clean Sheet at 12/5. Again, this seems a strange price considering Wigan have fired a blank at home for their last 3 consecutive games, making it well over 4 hours since they last scored in front of their own fans. They even failed to score against Stoke (0-0) last time out who have the joint worst defence in the division! And the awesome Everton back line from last season is now starting to click into gear: since the Man Utd game they have conceded just 2 goals in their last 4 games. Don’t forget this is exactly the same defensive personnel that shipped just 33 league goals last season (by far the best record outside the big four): a 3rd shut-out in 5 games looks a definite possibility on Monday night.
Recommended Bets - 4 pts - Everton, 15/8
Recommended Bets - 3 pts - Everton Clean Sheet, 12/5