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Arsenal v Chelsea

By Simon Hopper

Last updated: 09:00 Sunday, November 29, 2009

**BEST BET – DRAW @ 12/5**

The two form sides in the Premiership go head to head at the Emirates and the bookmakers can hardly separate Arsenal and Chelsea in the match odds.

The Gunners are 5 from 5 at home this season and actually boast a very impressive record against Big Four clubs at the Emirates; they’ve lost just 1 of their last 9, winning 4 and drawing the other 4. However, the 1-0 defeat at Sunderland last weekend coupled with Arsene Wenger’s injury situation has eased their price somewhat in recent days. Robin van Persie is a long-term absentee while Wenger has a crisis at left-back, with Gael Clichy and Kieron Gibbs both out. Fortunately for them, Jose Bosingwa won’t be playing for Chelsea and Branislav Ivanovic will not offer nearly the same attacking threat down that flank; if the Gunners had the problems at right-back then you would have fancied Ashley Cole to wreak havoc against his former club.

Not that table-topping Chelsea are without their own issues – Carlo Ancelotti’s side have already lost 2 on the road this term (1-2 to Aston Villa and 1-3 to Wigan Athletic) – furthermore, they have only won 1 of their last 9 games away to big-four clubs. But the importance of Didier Drogba being fit cannot be underestimated. Chelsea’s only 2 defeats against Arsenal in their last 15 meetings both came when the Ivorian was absent – they have won 3 and drawn 1 of the last 4 games he has played against them. Over the last 3 seasons, Drogba has only played in 2 of Chelsea’s 7 defeats to the Big Four and was instrumental in the 2-0 and 1-0 wins over Liverpool and Manchester United this season.

If you combine the clubs’ big four records over the last 3 seasons then the draw should be an 8/5 shot and as always, that alternative looks over-priced again at 12/5. Arsenal hardly ever lose home games to big four clubs while Chelsea look as defensively well-organised as ever (8 goals conceded in 13 matches), plus key man Didier Drogba will be lining up. The stalemate looks the sensible call.