MADISON DU BERLAIS - Feasibly handicapped off 158 (4lbs lower than his Racing Post Chase run). It will take a mighty performance to defy the mark and the weight, but there are many worse each-way players. ***
MON MOME - Returns to the scene of his greatest triumph off only a 7lbs higher mark and shaped superbly when a running on third in the Gold Cup. Peaking at the right time and massive claims in a race that arguably has less strength in depth than last year. ****
BLACK APALACHI - Going well when tipping up at Bechers second time last year and has since secured an emphatic victory over the big fences. However, the handicapper looks to have his measure off a16lbs higher mark. ***
JOE LIVELY - Smart chaser in his time, but has deteriorated this year and although likely to be prominent in the first half of the race is unlikely to last home in the front rank. *
VIC VENTURI - emphatic winner of a sub-standard Becher Chase, but remains lightly raced over fences and is preferred to stable mate Black Apalachi from the same mark. Class act that jumps well having never fallen. ***
COMPLY OR DIE - A pound lower than when second last year, but still a stone higher in the weights than when victorious in 2008 and has shown nothing this year, needs the ground to dry out dramatically as well. ***
DON'T PUSH IT - Classy on his day but has to have things his own way and the handicapper not giving him much slack. Needs to find something from somewhere to be involved. **
MADE IN TAIPAN - Classy at his best and has not been disgraced in some hot graded races this season, but is untried at the trip and doesn't jump fluently enough to win around here. *
NICHE MARKET - Winner of the Irish National off 136 on good ground, but now has to race off 152. The key to his chance lies in the ground needs it good otherwise he will not see out the four and a half miles. **
TRICKY TRICKSTER - Winner of the National Hunt Chase two years ago and has continued to progress since. Worth forgetting his lame run in the Gold Cup as he was never traveling and is much better than that. ****
CLOUDY LANE - Now 7lbs lower than when unseating at The Chair last year and has looked as good as ever over timber and fences this year. Still a slight doubt as to whether he stays this far when there is give in the ground. ***
DREAM ALLIANCE - Won the Welsh National off 142 and now nine pounds higher. Goes well fresh and still not handicapped out of things and should stay the trip. *
NOZIC - Didn't take to the fences in the Topham Chase last year and although still well weighted he has become disappointing and there are more solid choices. *
MY WILL - 2lbs lower than when placed last year but apart from his opening run in Ireland subsequent performances have been flat to say the least. Capable, but really needs top of the ground. ***
PABLO DU CHARMIL - Seemed to stay three miles around Uttoxeter, but handicapper has a grip at the moment and this extra mile and a half looks too far. *
BACKSTAGE - Won valuable event at Ffos Las off 137 but the hike to 148 looks tough. As a P2P in Ireland he stayed well enough and supporters reliant on the extra distance bringing about the necessary improvement. ***
BALLYHOLLAND - Stays three miles, but readily put in his place by Backstage at Perth and his jumping has failed to convince on a number of occasions.*
BEAT THE BOYS - Highest winning mark over fences (140) races off 148 here and is very unpredictable. Promises to stay but good ground suits best and needs to find something from somewhere. **
PRIESTS LEAP - Twice a winner of the Thyestes Chase, but failed to take a shine to the fences last year and a similar fate awaits. *
CAN'T BUY TIME - Patently didn't stay four miles when behind Tricky Trickster in the NH Chase two years ago and although a stronger horse this year there are also doubts about his fencing. **
SNOWY MORNING - Placed third two years ago off 145 and then ninth off 156 last year. Back down to a more feasible 147 and looks likely to be involved in the closing stages and could be the forgotten horse of the race. ***
BIG FELLA THANKS - Is 3lbs lower than when a fine sixth last year and looks more the finished article this year. I still have a query about him seeing out the trip but should certainly improve on last year's run. ****
CHARACTER BUILDING - Obviously been trained with this race in mind, but desperately disappointing this year and needs the ground to dry out to help, not for me. **
STATE OF PLAY - 5lbs lower than when 18 lengths fourth last year and purely on those figures should be involved. May have been placed last year but for mistakes at the 20th and 22nd. Good jumper in the main. ****
ELLERSLIE GEORGE - Won the Badger Ales off 132, but since been unable to defy new mark and looks held by the assessor. **
BALLYFITZ - definitely stays this trip, but keeps on compromising his chances over fences by making mistakes. Won't get away with that here on ground probably too quick. **
CONNA CASTLE - Is a massive non stayer in my book and doesn't jump well enough. *
ERIC'S CHARM - Running well at the moment but this looks too strong for him and will do well to complete the course. **
KINGS JOHN CASTLE - Ran a corker behind Comply or Die two years ago but on the downgrade since and will do well to finish in the top 10. **
OLLIE MAGERN - Formerly classy stayer very much on the downgrade and although his mark has fallen accordingly it would be a big shock if he finished let alone won. *
ARBOR SUPREME - One of the better outsiders in the field always highly rated by his trainer. It seems that good ground though is what he needs to show his best form, if he gets it; feasibly weighted. ***
MALJIMAR - Has progressed well in the last two seasons and jumps and travels like a class horse in his races. Problem is the trip here which could bottom him out from the Melling Road. **
IRISH RAPTOR - Has an outstanding record around here but signs that he is on the downgrade and must be long odds against seeing out the four miles plus. *
MR POINTMENT - Paul Murphy has done well with his horses around here and although this fella can handle the fences the final three parts of a mile has found him out before. *
PIRAYA - Exposed individual that finds two and a half miles his optimum trip and has no more than an outsider chance of completing the course. **
THE PACKAGE - Is the kind of horse I may back in running because if he takes to the fences he could run a huge race. Ran well in the 24 runner William Hill Chase at Cheltenham with the promise of staying the trip. Big chance. *****
HELLO BUD - Well enough treated on his Scottish National win two years ago and handled these fences well last autumn. Connections would want the ground to dry up significantly though. **
PALYPSO DE CREEK - Mixed fortunes on four starts here with good ground seemingly a help when winning at Towcester. Has negotiated the fences, but worryingly ran a moody race last time out albeit on an undulating track over hurdles. ***
FLINTOFF - Pulled out of the Irish National on Bank Holiday Monday and it remains to be seen if he is 100% for this. Really wants hock deep ground to be at his best and won't get that here. **
ABBEYBRANEY - Even off his comparative lightweight is not good enough and trainer has pointed he may pull him out to get Royal Rosa a run. *
CERIUM - Was a fine running on fifth last year when given a peach of a ride by Keith Mercer and has the good to soft ground he needs again. If he fancies it again there will be far worse horses you could support to reach a place; look for the bookies offering 1-6 a place. ***
SILVER BIRCH - Former winner who retains his zest for racing, although he should finish has little chance of repeating the winning dose. **
ROYAL ROSA - Stays all day and ran well over these fences last autumn. Needs to be in the right frame of mind to play a part, but has the latent ability to be on the heels of the main protagonists. **
WHINSTONE BOY - From connections who love a tilt at the ring and was impressive in Thyestes Chase. The slower the ground the better and under such conditions is an outsider with a shout; forecast though is against him. ***
Paul Jacobs' 1-2-3-4
1/ THE PACKAGE
2/ STATE OF PLAY
3/ BIG FELLA THANKS
4/ MON MOME