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1000 Guineas Trends

By Andy Newton
1000 Guineas Trends

Last updated: 10:23 Saturday, April 30, 2011


1000 Guineas Trends

This year's 1000 Guineas betting market is tough to decipher but Andy Newton is on hand with his trends analysis to help you cross a line through some of the field. Andy's in-depth 1000 Guineas tips will appear here closer to the start time. Also remember to visit our Newmarket Guineas centre for the best odds on every race, where you can also see Andy's 2000 Guineas trends as well.

  • 8/10 - Drawn in stall 10 or less
  • 7/10 - Won last time out
  • 6/10 - Trained in the UK
  • 6/10 - Returned a double-figure price
  • 6/10 - Won on their seasonal reappearance
  • 5/10 - Ran at Newmarket in their previous race
  • 5/10 - Favourites unplaced
  • 3/10 - Drawn in stall 8
  • 3/10 - Won by the favourite

      Year Horse Trainer Jockey Previous Run Last Race (days) Country Drawn Fav Finish Winning Odds
      1,000 Guineas – Newmarket Group 1 (Fillies) 1m
      2010 Special Duty Mme C Head-Maarek S Pasquier 3rd M-Laffitte 24 FRA 1 1st 9/2 fav
      2009 Ghanaati B Hills R Hills 1st Kemp 188 UK 8 Unplaced 20/1
      2008 Natagora CP Lemaire P Bary 1st M-Laffitte 20 FRA 13 1st 11/4 fav
      2007 Finsceal Beo J Bolger K Manning 1st Newmkt 204 IRE 8 1st 5/4 fav
      2006 Speciosa Mrs P Sly M Fenton 1st Newmkt 18 UK 3 Unplaced 10/1
      2005 Virginia Waters AP O'Brien K Fallon 1st Leop 20 IRE 1 2nd 12/1
      2004 Attraction M Johnston K Darley 1st Newmkt 269 UK 8 Unplaced 11/2
      2003 Russian Rhythm Sir M Stoute K Fallon 2nd Newmkt 183 UK 2 2nd 12/1
      2002 Kazzia S Bin Suroor L Dettori 1st San Siro 174 UK 12 Unplaced 14/1
      2001 Ameerat M Jarvis P Robinson 6th Newmkt 175 UK 10 Unplaced 11/1



      Andy Newton's 1,000 Guineas Betting Views

      Unlike the 2,000 Guineas, the fillies Classic on Sunday looks a lot more open with the current 1,000 Guineas betting seeing Moonlight Cloud and Havant topping the market at around 5/1.

      If we go on the recent big-race trends then there’s plenty of standout things to note - like 70% of the last 10 winners winning their last race, 6/10 being trained in the UK and winning this on their seasonal reappearance, while 50% of the last 10 victors had previous Newmarket experience – winning at HQ on their last outing.

      MOONLIGHT CLOUD:
      Trained by Freddy Head, who rode the winner of this race back in 1983 and 1987, this one will be hoping to maintain the good record of the French runners in this contest. Our friends from across the Channel have raided these shores to land the prize 6 times since 1980, including 12 months ago, and in Moonlight Cloud they’ve got a strong player once again. Last seen winning a Group Three in France 3 weeks ago over 7f she’ll be one of the fitter runners in the line-up, but this will be her first time outside of her native land. Finally, her only foray into Group One company resulted in a 3 ½ length defeat over Wooton Bassett last October. BET ON MOONLIGHT CLOUD

      HAVANT:
      I really, really like this one. Unbeaten from two starts after landing her maiden and then the Group Three Oh So Sharp Stakes last season, but more significantly both victories came here at Newmarket and that’s a huge advantage. Yes, she’s got to prove she’ll handle this faster surface with both wins coming with a bit of dig in the ground, but the word is she’s flying at home and after a slowish start to the season the Sir Michael Stoute team are starting to show signs they are about to hit top gear. She’s the current favourite for the Epsom Oaks, and the way she won her two races last season over 7f suggests she’ll be even better over further. Stoute won this in 2003 (Russian Rhythm) and 1989 (Musical Bliss). BET ON HAVANT

      MEMORY:
      Trainer Richard Hannon is still looking for his first win in this race, but with his growing army of classy sorts you feel his turn is not too far away. She flopped in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last August after winning the Albany and the Cherry Hinton Stakes in her eye-catching, come-from-behind style she’s certainly one for the shortlist. The main doubt, however, is the trip - having won all her races over 6f, but if Richard Hughes can get her settled early on then the way she finished her races at Ascot and here last season suggests there’s every chance she’ll get home. BET ON MEMORY

      HOORAY:
      Sir Mark Prescott is another trainer still looking for his first win in this race, but last year’s Cheveley Park Stakes winner comes here as by far his best chance of breaking that duck. She ran away with that race, winning by an impressive 4 ½ lengths and with the runner-up Rimth franking that form when winning the Fred Darling last month then everything points to a big run. She’s got a bit to find with Memory based on Royal Ascot form last season, but I think she’s improved since and of the pair is more likely to get this extra yardage. BET ON HOORAY

      LAUGHING LASHES:
      Jessie Harrington seems to be everywhere at the moment – Fairyhouse last week, the Guineas this week and back over the sticks next week at Punchestown. However, she’s got a leading chance in both of the English Classics this weekend with her unbeaten Pathfork going in the 2000 on Saturday. Her runner here has only won one of her four starts, but was runner-up in the other three and I think this grey has a big chance. She’s closely tied in with another runner here Misty For Me after running against that one in her last two races (winning one & coming second). The fast ground will be fine, but my main reason for liking her is the yard (over both codes) are in flying form and despite not being seen since last August I expect her to come here in tip-top condition. BET ON LAUGHING LASHES

      Recommended Bets
      2pts win HAVANT

      1pt e/w LAUGHING LASHES