**** This is archived content **** - View Full Archive

1000 Guineas Verdict

By Gavin Beech

Last updated: 08:52 Sunday, May 2, 2010

Paul Jacobs: You can often hear Paul’s racing views on the Timeform Radio airwaves, while having won the Racing Post NAP’s table twice he’s got proven tipping form.

Gavin Beech: Has been giving easyodds members his expert views and opinions on horseracing and football for over 5 years, while you can also find Gavin reporting in the Racing Post.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


1,000 Guineas…………….


Paul Jacobs says.............In a year of so may ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ the first fillies’ classic of the season looks a real conundrum even at this late stage.

The story of favourite Special Duty fascinates me. Made one of the bankers for the five classics by many pundits after a cracking juvenile campaign, she was readily put in her place in the Prix Imprudence at Masons Laffitte on her three-year-old debut and unlike connections I can see no excuses for that defeat.

On top of that I have always been in the camp that she is very much a doubtful stayer over the Rowley Mile and I am quite happy to oppose her and agree with Ladbrokes, top priced 4/1, that she is a very uneasy favourite.

It was interesting to read the recent interview of Luca Cumani that his charge Seta had, as expected, strengthened up considerably through the winter and looks the finished article having not had the strength to carry her considerable frame as a juvenile.

The one worry I have with the daughter of Pivotal is that she is quite heavy topped and looks the type to need a bit of give in the ground to let herself down. If as per normal it came up very fast at the weekend it wouldn’t surprise me if Cumani saves her for the Irish equivalent.

You can’t crab the success of Music Show in the Nell Gwyn and she looks as though the extra furlong will suit, but her current quote of around the 6/1 mark looks about right so those of you looking for a bit of value may well want to consider RUMOUSH.

It was interesting that her shrewd handler pushed this likeable filly into Listed company (Fielden Stakes) after her winning debut on the sand at Lingfield and the way she beat up that field at Newmarket certainly gave massive cause for optimism.

The daughter of Rahy, ran green through the middle part of the race, but once asked for her effort into the dip, she quickened up in the style of a smart filly.

Many will believe that after winning over nine furlongs the drop back to a mile could prove a disadvantage, but she showed a good cruising speed that day and there is almost certainly plenty more left in the locker from this scopey individual and she looks solid e/w material at 8/1 with so many question mark surrounding the fillies above her in the betting.

If you’re looking for an outsider at massive odds then Nuture could fit the bill. Her form last year was particularly solid and although Timepiece appears to have let the Montrose Stakes’ form down this season, Henry Cecil’s filly still looks an exciting prospect.

I suspect that form line could well prove to be one of the most solid by the end of the summer and she remains way too big at around the 50/1 marker.

Paul's 1-2-3 Selections

1. Rumoush
2. Seta (good ground)

3. Nurture 

-------------------------------------------------------

Gavin Beech says....The waters are very muddy in the fillies' division and the leading protagonists have questions to answer, not least ante-post favourite Special Duty who was turned over at odds-on in the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-laffitte on seasonal return.

Connections were however unperturbed by that defeat, saying she was going to benefit enormously from the run, and it may be that the testing conditions proved too much for the Cheveley Park winner on her first run back. She remains the form pick on that Group One win as a juvenile and it would be unwise to lose faith in her completely but she has a bit to prove for now so at around 7-2 she doesn't make that much appeal.

Seta was one of the big talking horses of last season afte she won her Newmarket maiden by eight lengths, but Luca Cumani's filly then somehow managed to get turned over at 4-7 in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster, where she was tackling fast ground for the first time. Ground conditions on the Rowley Mile have to be a concern as it is going to be on the fast side of good, but her jockey Kieren Fallon remains adamant she is effective on a quick surface, so the daughter of Pivotal is a difficult one to get a handle on. She could still prove the class act connections have always insisted she is, but, like the favourite, she has to go out and prove it now.

Impressive Nell Gwyn winner Music Show is well worth her place in the line-up and it's hard to knock her credentials. Connections need to find her a new jockey after Fallon confirmed he would be riding Seta, but she is fairly straightforward so it shouldn't be a major issue and this daughter of Noverre is capable of making the frame, at least. She holds Tabassum on their run in the Rockfel Stakes last term.

At the prices though I prefer RUMOUSH. I was at Lingfield when this daughter of Rahy made her debut in November and although connections were not getting over excited afterwards, it was evident that they thought she could be pretty decent as a three-year-old. The Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned filly proved she had trained on when powering clear in the Fielden Stakes at the Craven meeting, despite still looking green, confirming in the process her effectiveness on the track and ground. That was quite a persuasive performance and Marcus Tregoning's filly is almost guaranteed to improve again for that experience.

She has been quite well-backed since but is still available at 8-1 and appears to have a solid chance of bagging this race for the second year running for her owner, after Ghanaati's victory 12 months ago.

Ground conditions are likely to be too quick for Joanna and Pipette, which is a shame as the last named would have been interesting at big odds. Of the juicer-priced horses, Fred Darling winner Puff could be a spot of value at 25-1. Her pedigree raises major question marks about her ability to get this trip (dam multiple winning sprinter) but the daughter of Camacho saw her race out well enough over seven furlongs at Newbury, and Ralph Beckett went on record after saying his horses have been behind, so she is sure to derive plenty from that outing. If she settles she could go well at a price.

Gavin's 1-2-3 selections:

1. Rumoush
2.Music Show
3. Puff



-----------------------------------------
EXTRABET
20% CASHBACK
Get 20% cashback on all sports when you sign up with Extrabet! Click here to get this offer
-----------------------------------------