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2000 Guineas Thoughts
Last updated: 07:28 Saturday, May 1, 2010
Gavin Beech: Has been giving easyodds members his expert views and opinions on horseracing and football for over 5 years, while you can also find Gavin reporting in the Racing Post.
Paul Jacobs: You can often hear Paul’s expert views on the Timeform Radio airwaves, while having won the Racing Post NAP’s table twice he’s got proven tipping form.
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2,000 Guineas…………….
Paul Jacobs says....................Of course the first classic of the season has an easy equation to it in order to identify the winner. If ST NICHOLAS ABBEY has improved by as much if not more than the rivals he beat up in the Racing Post at Doncaster then the game is up.
After a tardy start to the season the O’Brien stable are beginning to pick up the strain and I have it on good authority from a contact in the yard that the ante-post favourite is working superbly at home having answered all the questions asked of him in taking style giving every indication he has trained on well.
We know that Elusive Pimpernel has picked up the baton in the Craven and that there are severe question marks about Canford Cliffs, so where is the opposition to the likely super horse of 2010 going to come from?
Well the Pimpernel is solid without in my book being spectacular. He showed a superb attitude under Ryan Moore to run out a convincing winner of the Craven and the race has a very solid look to it.
But if the Abbey cruises up beside him going into the dip and quickens past him, how long will it take for John Dunlop’s charge to react to such a move?
Sure he has a turn of pace, but he lengthens more than anything else and it could be that Eddie Ahern may have to take a real gamble and push for home a fair way out to try and take the sting out of St Nicholas Abbey’s finishing push especially as his charge looks sure to stay at least 10 furlongs if not a mile and a half. It’s an interesting conundrum for connections of the second favourite.
Furthermore the threat of rain will not have pleased John Dunlop and any easing in the ground will obviously be in the favourite’s favour.
Al Zir was behind both of them at Town Moor on dead ground, but has blossomed this spring for Godolphin. I saw him gallop at Newmarket a couple of weeks ago and he looks a different horse physically this year.
The son of Medgalia D’Oro has plenty to find with the first two, but the Godolphin string are in rude health and he could be one of the main movers in the market place from a double figure price. Remember he pulled hard enough that day and could be an interesting in play proposition depending on whether he relaxes early on or not.
O’Brien’s Fencing Master ran an absolutely amazing race in the Dewhurst after nearly being knocked over at stall release and then under the cosh fully half a mile out.
The fact that his run flattened out well inside the final furlong is no surprise, but he certainly lost nothing in defeat and like the ante-post favourite he has flourished at home this spring. He maybe a second string for O’Brien, but he is more than useful and unlike his stable mate looks like a specialist miler pure and simple.
The Canford Cliffs debate goes on and on. After his Greenham run, certainly not disgraced after running all over the shop inside the final quarter mile, the Coventry Stakes winner has since worked brilliantly at home.
For Richard Hughes and Richard Hannon to put their thoughts out into the public domain about their charge may appear to be bravado of the highest order, but both know the time of day as regards a top class horse and for that point alone I am unwilling to caste him aside completely.
My main problem with the horse is that the wide open spaces of Newmarket will not aid his cause especially as in recent years the field have tended to race down the centre of the track; rain would not help him.
I think it would be a mistake to try and cover the horse up if they really do believe their charge will stay and much will depend on the draw. I suspect Hannon will be hoping his charge gets drawn very low or high and can take the field with him to either rail…………..it’s a real conundrum for messrs Hannon and Hughes.
Clive Cox is very happy with Xtension, but he needs plenty of winding up and may lack the instant acceleration of a Guineas’ winner, while Greenham winner Dick Turpin would only be an outside player if the weather forecast changes which remains a distinct possibility.
1/ St Nicholas Abbey
2/ Al Zir
3/ Dick Turpin
Best Outsider………….Fencing Master
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Gavin Beech says.....The vibes coming out of Ballydoyle have been positive about the progress St Nicholas Abbey has made over the winter and his price has contracted since Elusive Pimpernel bolted up in the Craven Stakes, boosting the Racing Post Trophy form, where Aidan O'Brien's colt beat that rival by three-and-a-half lengths.
The formbook says that this ought to be a formality for St Nicholas Abbey given he has already thrashed his main danger, but there are other factors to take into consideration. Firstly, the son of Montjeu has yet to race on ground with the word 'firm' in the description, and secondly, he is bidding to become the first colt by his sire to win a Group One race over less than 10f as a three-year-old, and many have tried.
So there are reasons to be optimistic if you want to be against this short-priced favourite. Elusive Pimpernel's impressive Craven Stakes victory confirmed the colt acts on the undulations of Newmarket and he handles fast ground, while his trainer John Dunlop, who has never won this race, believes his charge has improved significantly physically since last year. A strongly run race on decent ground are Elsuive Pimpernel's optimum conditions and it's difficult to see him out of the frame so, at around 5-1, he looks an each-way bet to nothing.
There are though some horses lurking at double figure prices who could cause a 'mini-upset'. Inler is a fascinating contender and the noises coming from John best's Kent stable have been very encouraging. Connections are in no doubt that this colt is the real deal, and he impressed many work watchers when galloping on the Rowley Mile on Craven Stakes day. It's interesting to see that the Sangster family bought a share of this horse last week from majority shareholder Harry Findlay. The colt will carry Findlay's purple silks at Newmarket.
I can't have Canford Cliffs, he won't stay well wnough to win this while stablemate Dick Turpin probably won't run because connections feel he needs some juice in the ground to show his best form.
The one I prefer is Clive Cox's XTENSION who was only beaten a neck and a nose in the Group One Dewhurst Stakes last season at this track. The son of Xaar improved with every start as a juvenile and everything about this colt suggests he's going to improve for the step up to a mile as a three-year-old.
Just like so many of these, much depends on how the colt has progressoved over the winter, but the Lambourn trainer is reportedly getting very excited about his colt's chance on Saturday and because he isn't trained by one of the higher profile stables, Xtension is probably a little bigger in the market than his form entitles him to be. There is plenty of 16-1 available and that is decent value.
Gavin Beech's 1-2-3:
1. Xtension
2. Elusive Pimpernel
3. Inler