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2000 Guineas Trends

By Andy Newton
2000 Guineas Betting

Last updated: 12:34 Thursday, April 28, 2011



2000 Guineas Betting

Andy Newton takes a look at the key 2000 Guineas trends ahead of this year's renewal. Andy's 2000 Guineas tips will appear here closer to race time. Also be sure to check our Newmarket Guineas Betting centre for the best odds on every race at HQ, which includes Andy's 1000 Guineas trends.

  • 10/10 - Placed in their previous run
  • 8/10 - Won their previous race
  • 7/10 - Drawn in a double-figure stall
  • 6/10 - Won this on their seasonal reappearance
  • 6/10 - Trained in Ireland
  • 6/10 - Favourites that were unplaced
  • 3/10 - Ridden by Kieren Fallon
  • 4/10 - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
  • 1/10 - Won by the favourite


      Year Horse Trainer Jockey Previous Run Last Race (days) Country Drawn Fav Finish Winning Odds
      2,000 Guineas – Newmarket Group 1 1m
      2010 Makfi M Delzangles C-P Lemaire 1st M-laffitte 23 FR 15 Unplaced 33/1
      2009 Sea The Stars J Oxx M Kinane 1st Curragh 216 IRE 1 2nd 8/1
      2008 Henrythenavigator AP O’Brien J Murtagh 3rd Curragh 251 IRE 10 2nd 11/1
      2007 Cockney Rebel G Huffer O Peslier 3rd York 238 UK 15 Unplaced 25/1
      2006 George Washington AP O’Brien K Fallon 1st Curragh 262 IRE 6 1st 6/4 fav
      2005 Footstepsinthesand AP O'Brien K Fallon 1st Leop 159 IRE 17 Unplaced 13/2
      2004 Haafhd B Hills R Hills 1st Newmkt 15 UK 4 Unplaced 11/2
      2003 Refuse To Bend D Weld PJ Smullen 1st Leop 19 IRE 18 Unplaced 9/2
      2002 Rock Of Gibraltar AP O’Brien J Murtagh 1st Newmkt 156 IRE 22 2nd 9/1
      2001 Golan Sir M Stoute K Fallon 1st Chep 212 UK 19 Unplaced 11/1

      Andy Newton's 2000 Guineas Betting View

       
      Sod the trends – this race is easy, FRANKEL first – the rest nowhere........or is it?

      Henry Cecil, who last won the 2,000 Guineas back in 1976 with Willow, will be hoping to cap his resurgence to the big time with the talented and unbeaten Frankel – but has his colt really been tested against the best yet?

      Yes, he slammed Aidan O’Brien’s Roderic O’Connor in last season’s Dewhurst and after a reappearance win in the Group Three Greenham he should be spot on for this, but although based on the times he’s producing - is he any value at around 4/7 in the betting?

      He could dot-up by half the track and then, I guess, those odds would have looked tasty, but let us not forget the horse he beat last time by 4 lengths was rated a massive 37lbs inferior to Cecil’s 3 year-old and although he wasn’t stopping at the end there’s still a big doubt over that form. Add in that this Galileo colt has shown plenty of temperament issues at the start of his races then with this occasion set to be his biggest yet then his nerve will also be tested to the maximum.

      It’s also worth mentioning Newmarket dip. He’s won on a fast surface, but not at HQ (only win here on soft) and this powerful sort could just come unstuck when entering the closing stages of the race, especially if one or two of the others is still in touch to apply a bit of pressure.

      True, you might think I’m clutching at straws with all these points and, believe me, I’m certainly one of those that would love to see another superstar mop-up all the Classics and then go onto win the Arc etc, but I just keep looking at the price and at around 4/7 there’s surely better value trying to find one or two each-way against him.

      BET ON FRANKEL HERE

      For me the ones to home in on are – Pathfork, Native Khan, Roderic O’Connor, Saamidd and Casamento.

      PATHFORK: Unbeaten in three, with his most recent win when seeing off Casamento by a head in the Group One Vincent O’Brien National last September. He’s tough, his versatile yard are in cracking form, while he’s got winning form on a fast surface. On breeding he’s set to go further in time, so don’t worry that all his wins have been over 7f and finally the Irish have won six of the last 10 runnings. BET ON PATHFORK

      NATIVE KHAN: Might just be a tad below this class, but the key to him entering calculations is the ground. He’s shown a real liking for a fast surface in the past, with his only defeat in four runs coming on good ground behind Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy last October. He landed the Craven Stakes, which I admit is not the best trial these days, here at HQ last time so comes here fit, the yard are in flying form. However, it’s worth pointing out the runner-up in the Craven, Libranno, didn’t really frank the form at Ascot in midweek when coming fourth in a Listed affair, albeit under a penalty. BET ON NATIVE KHAN

      RODERIC O’CONNOR: Best known for coming second behind Frankel in the Dewhurst, beaten 2 ¼ lengths, but with another winter on his back he certainly can’t be ruled out, especially with the excellent recent record his yard has in the race. Don’t forget 2005 when O’Brien didn’t look to have that strong a hand in these Newmarket Classics but landed both with Footstepsinthesand and Virginia Waters. He’s won on a fast surface, so no issues there, and despite having a bit to find with the Cecil colt he should be better over this mile (1 from 1 over this trip) – rule him out at your peril! BET ON RODERIC O’CONNOR

      SAAMIDD: Another forgotten horse after flopping in the Dewhurst last October behind Frankel, but the good-to-soft ground could be to blame there, while he got a bit worked up at the start that day. Yes, the Bin Suroor yard are not quite firing, with the other Godolphin stable under Mahmood Al Zarooni grabbing all the headlines, but let’s not forget this one won the Group Two Champagne Stakes in impressive fashion and back on this firm ground he could run a big race. BET ON SAAMIDD

      CASAMENTO:
      Now with Mahmood Al Zarooni after being transferred from Michael Halford over the winter. A win for the new Godolphin handler will really blast him onto the UK racing scene and although he might be more of a Derby horse I think people under estimate just what a test this mile is at this stage of a 3 year-olds career. His only defeat came against Pathfork, when beaten a head at the Curragh last season, but he’s another that has winning form on a quick surface, while of those heading to post he’s virtually a certainty to stay – it’s just a case of whether he’s got enough pace to still be in the mix to make his stamina count. BET ON CASAMENTO

      Recommended Bets

      1pt e/w CASAMENTO

      1pt e/w PATHFORK