**** This is archived content **** - View Full Archive
Cheltenham Festival Novice Tips 2012
Last updated: 11:08 Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Paul Jacobs' Best Novice Bets
The Cheltenham Festival offers a chance for novices in three areas (bumpers, novice hurdles and novice chases) to make a mark in their new discipline. Favourites don’t have a great record in these races if you have a look at the Cheltenham results down through the years, but Irish runners do have a tremendous strike rate especially in the novice hurdle and bumper events. Don’t forget easyodds.com will provide you with unrivalled coverage of the big event, the very best tips and declarations for each day, all the Cheltenham results and of course the very best odds on every horse from our dedicated Cheltenham Festival Betting Centre. And from now until the March fixture, three times Racing Post NAPS champion Paul Jacobs will give you his continued assessment of the main ante-post novice chase events which he will update every week. He also has a dedicated betting page for the NOVICE HURDLES and the SENIOR GRADE ONE events for the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.
Arkle Trophy Chase Tips –
Recommended Bet – AL FEROF (each-way) @ 7/1
(*Price right as of Jan 5th) - Price now - 11/4
TIPPING PREVIEW - This is arguably the most interesting ante-post market for the whole of the Cheltenham Festival 2012 with a clutch of classy hurdlers switching to fences. Because of his second in the Champion Hurdle last year the expectation for Peddlers Cross will be higher than most. However, I have been impressed by his economy of jumping and you can consign to the bin his run at Kempton where he got the first fence all wrong and was always playing catch-up on Sprinter Sacre.
There are plenty of alternatives in the ante-post market though and at racing odds of around 7/1 (as low as 4’s) Henry VIII winner AL FEROF makes plenty of each-way appeal. It seems an unwritten rule that a potential Arkle winner is at an advantage if able to stay further and with the Paul Nicholls’ grey being tried and tested at Cheltenham and being a spring horse it is fair to assume he will bring more to the table in March. It may also be advisable to split your stakes on the horse running in the Champion Chase as well with his entry in the Victor Chandler Chase.
Menorah not surprisingly looked paceless in the International Hurdle and has had his jumping problems since, but a fast run two miles granted at least some give in the ground will suit so don’t write him off just yet. Sprinter Sacre's jumping didn’t wholly impress me over the easy Town Moor fences on his first start and he was entitled to win the race in the manner he did; while he essentially had just an exercise canter at Kempton and is way too short at a top priced 5/2. However, it was hard not to be impressed by his saunter in the Game Spirit and there is little doubt he has some engine. It would be interesting to see how his jumping would hold up should he be pressurised at his obstacles.
Of the bigger priced runners Blackstairmountain could be interesting as he didn’t really fulfil his potential over hurdles, but was very efficient on his fencing debut at Clonmel and then followed up in cracking style over Christmas in much better class.
Sprinter Sacre is quite obviously the one to beat, but he did bottom out quickly in the Supreme last year and the each-way bet to nothing with a faster pace assured is still Al Ferof.
BET NOW – AL FEROF
RSA Chase Tips –
Recommended bet - SIR DES CHAMPS (each-way) @ 20/1
*NOTE: SIR DES CHAMPS IS A NON-RUNNER
(*Price right as of Jan 5th) - Price now - 5/1
TIPPING PREVIEW - Will Grand Crus go for this staying novice contest or in my view the better option, the Ryanair Chase? David Pipe’s horse has so much speed that the latter contest, even as a novice, would seem to be within his grasp especially as it looks a potentially weak renewal this year. Bobs Worth will relish the step up to three miles after rallying to win at Newbury and running a solid race in the Feltham behind the Pipe runner and is a solid each-way alternative, but Bog Warrior and Join Together will almost certainly require plenty of give to make the journey over from Ireland and don’t figure on my ante-post horizon at the moment.
Of more interest is Flight Lieutenant (despite breaking a blood vessel two outings back). He will have had plenty of experience by the time the Festival comes along and looks a typical spring horse despite being handed a heavy defeat last time out, while the physically imposing Sir Des Champs won well on his two starts to date. But the pick of the runners at this stage could be Last Instalment who hacked up again at Flight Lieutenant last time out in the Fort Leney and Grand Crus a part looks the most natural jumper of a fence on either side of the Irish Sea. Invictus was the latest to lay down his claims in the Reynoldstown Chase, but I fancy Bobs Worth will have his measure over the stiffer Cheltenham track and where the former has already failed to shine this season.
At this stage I just want to hang fire for a little bit longer before I wade in although I am tempted by SIR DES CHAMPS at 20/1 and with the Mullins factor on our side, he is sure to start a whole lot shorter if taking up the RSA engagement.
BET NOW - SIR DES CHAMPS (each-way)