Dancing On Ice 2012 is back on our screens, with Matthew Wolfenden and Jorgie Porter the early front-runners to win this year’s show. Simon Hopper has analysed the betting markets and thinks that the current favourite will go all the way…

Recommended Dancing On Ice tip:

Matthew Wolfenden to win @ 5/4 – BET NOW

Emmerdale star Matthew Wolfenden ticks all the boxes and looks primed to go all the way in this year’s Dancing On Ice.

This show normally produces a similar kind of winner every series and Wolfenden fits perfectly into that portfolio. Being young is vital – all six past champions have been under the age of 36 and in excellent physical shape – so obviously the youthful and well-toned Matthew is fine in those departments. Five of the six winners have been actors/actresses – and interestingly, four of them were best known for roles on soap operas. Matthew plays David Metcalfe on Emmerdale so the audience will already know him well, which has clearly proven to be a big positive in the past.

And you’ve also got to be very good at skating right from the start – this isn’t a show where late improvers can come up on the rails and take the crown (like Strictly Come Dancing, for example). The last five consecutive winners all scored 19 or higher on their first attempt – Matthew managed 20.5 and was the only celebrity on this series to break the 19 barrier first time up.

The only slight concern is that he is clearly extremely competitive, which can be a turn off for voters. Past champs like Sam Attwater, Hayley Tamaddon and Ray Quinn were a bit more modest about their ability – they all obviously wanted to win, of course, but they weren’t as blatantly motivated as Wolfenden. However, Dancing On Ice odds of 5/4 compensate for those small fears and I think he should be backed now.

The main danger is clearly Jorgie Porter, who is also a soap star and who polled the joint second highest score of the opening round. However, a Hollyoaks character has never won – possibly because the show has a younger audience than Dancing On Ice – and an opening score of 18.5 is slightly below winning standard in a normal season. Chico also scored 18.5 and is now the third favourite but he’s done nothing since the X Factor and I don’t think he’ll have enough hardcore support to trouble Wolfenden or Porter.