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Grand National Betting Guide
Last updated: 12:05 Saturday, April 9, 2011
GRAND NATIONAL BETTING GUIDE
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It’s that time of year again when once-a-year horse racing punters come out of the woodwork to have their annual foray into the Grand National betting market.
To take you through the main 2011 runners at this stage well-known pundit Paul Jacobs gives you his Grand National Betting Guide below.
Main 2011 Grand National Runners
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB – 10– 10-13 – Willie Mullins –
This Irish raider is a fine stamp of a horse and he kept the highest company as a novice hurdler notable when running Weapon’s Amnesty to just over two lengths in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival.
Since being switched to the larger obstacles his form has continued on the upgrade as more emphasis has been put on his stamina staying on well to finish second in the Thyestes Chase before readily putting his field to the sword in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on testing ground.
For – stays well with a turn of foot and is reasonably well handicapped.
Against – does rap the odd fence and would have to be held up for as long as possible up the long run-in.
BALLABRIGGS – 10 – 11 – 00 – Don McCain –
Is a wonderful site to see at the head of affairs as his jumping can be flamboyant and he races with great relish.
Galloped his rivals into the ground when just lasting home in the Kim Muir in 2010 and has run three sound races this term over hurdles/ fences despite the trip being way too sharp on each occasion.
Conversely, there is of course a doubt over his ability to handle the four and a half miles here and for me the jury has to be sitting on the fence here if he races as freely at the head of affairs as he did when winning at the festival. The other side of the argument would be that with another year on his back and still relatively lightly raced, 12 starts over fences, and only 21 career outings, there is more to come.
For – Never taken proper fall (slipped into a fence when coming to grief in maiden chase) and not fully exposed.
Against – Ability to see out the exhausting four and a half miles.
BACKSTAGE – 9 - 10 – 12 – Gordon Elliot –
Interesting contender on last year’s run in the race in which he was still travelling well in about 10th when brought down at the 20th fence. He rather fiddles his fences than takes them standing off, but as Jenny Pitman once told me that’s how a potential National winner should jump getting into the obstacles.
Now a nine-year-old (fits the trends perfectly) Backstage is able to race off exactly the same mark again (148) and hails from the massively in form Gordon Elliot yard.
Since running down the field in the Galway Plate, he has been restricted to running in point to points, hacking up on two occasions, but don’t let that out you off as Elliot took the same course with his 2007 winner Silver Birch.
For – Experienced big fences last year and in Foxhunters and well handicapped
Against – Never won over further than 3m2f
OSCAR TIME – 10 – 10 – 9 – M Lynch –
The 2009 Paddy Power Chase winner over an extended three miles at Leopardstown, he followed that run up with an even better second in the Irish National behind Bluesea Cracker when given a lovely creeping closer ride by Robbie Power.
Ultimately though his stamina gave out that day and I just have a nagging feeling that the same may happen in the Aintree marathon here despite the fact that Sam Waley-Cohen has a superb record in the race and the better ground could see him last longer.
He was quite readily beaten by The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo, but will be 4lbs better off at Aintree for that five length beating.
For – Brilliant jumper, has been aimed at this all season and jockey has cracking record at Aintree.
Against – Suspect stayer and untested on the likely good ground.
NICHE MARKET – 10 – 10- 13 – P Nicholls –
On pure form has twice matched his career best effort in winning the Irish National in 2009 when a short head second to Tricky Trickster in the Aon Chase (form arguably devalued since) and then when a 16.5 lengths fifth to Diamond Harry in this year’s Hennessy Gold Cup.
Handicap mark has dropped by 3lbs since he was far from fluent in the race last year, hit the 12th very hard and then steadily back pedalled from that point onwards until pulled up when well behind before the third last obstacle.
The Hennessy run suggests he retains all of his ability in which case he has to be a player at the weights, but last year’s sloppy performance means there are doubts about him handling the fences again.
For – Class act at his best and feasibly handicapped
Against – trainer has appalling record in the race and he didn’t seem to relish the fences last year
SILVER BY NATURE - 9 – 10 – 12 – L Russell –
A previous runner-up in the Welsh National (’09), he found his handicap mark against him in this year’s renewal, but bounced back to his progressive best, dropped 7lbs by the handicapper, when galloping his rivals into the ground in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Haydock.
He is in fact a pound lower for the big Aintree marathon, but weight or mark wouldn’t be an issue compared to the probable good ground and his sometimes sloppy jumping.
A big raw boned individual he certainly has the scope to handle the fences, but I suspect he would need a soft ground national to play a major role as a faster surface could force him into mistakes early on and take him out of a rhythm which is all important.
For – Stays all day and is well enough handicapped on his best form
Against – Not the most fluent of jumpers, an aspect of his profile which could be under pressure on good ground.
BIG FELLA THANKS – 9 – 11 – 1 – F Murphy –
In jumping 60 National fences in the last two runnings of the event, this scopey individual has only made a semblance of a mistake at two obstacles, both I the 2009 renewal, and he was foot perfect in last year’s contest.
He ran off marks of 146 and 149 in the last two Nationals and now finds himself set to run off 151. There is no doubt that granted some luck in running he will probably complete again, but the big worry is whether he has enough in the stamina department to see him through the final half mile which has always been a stumbling block for him.
His race reading details read “One pace from two out” and “faded from two out, lost third closing stages”.
Of course there have been no further clues as to whether his stamina has been fortified since as his two completed starts have been over two and three quarter and two and a half miles respectively.
For – Seems to eat these fences for breakfast, fairly weighted and moved to brilliant long distance trainer.
Against – Stamina hugely suspect.
QUINZ – 7 - 10 - 8 – P Hobbs –
Andrew Newton, our stats expert quite rightly points out that a seven-year-old hasn’t won the National for 70 years and a grey horse since 1961. Of course you can make stats say anything you want, but it takes a particularly mature horse of that age to be able to take the rigours of a race like this and that age trend should be used as a serious Grand National betting guide.
I was impressed by how this youngster battled on to reclaim the Racing Post Chase from the ashes of defeat as he was challenged two out by Mount Oscar and I fancy the trip won’t prove a problem, but his stamina is far from guaranteed.
For – Progressive, game and very well handicapped
Against – Inexperienced and not foot perfect
DON’T PUSH IT – 11 – 11 – 10 – J O’Neill
Produced a memorable display last year under A.P to give the multiple champ a deserved victory in the race and only has a 7lbs penalty to carry (5lbs more weight).
Of course 11-year-olds rarely win the National and back-to-back victories to boot as well, but here is a horse relatively lightly raced (only 27 career starts, 13 over fences). It has to be said he wasn’t foot perfect last year, made a hash of the fourth last, but found a leg and then stayed on really strongly.
The trends maybe against him, but if he goes with any vigour through the first half of the race then he is certainly an in running proposition in a race where there are plenty of younger horses receiving plenty of weight that will make the market for us.
The one negative is that he run in the Pertemps Hurdle Final at the Cheltenham Festival and was punted as if he was strongly fancied and indeed looked tight fit in the parade ring that day almost as if that was the day and April 9th isn’t…food for thought.
For – really took the fences last year, AP McCoy and still lightly raced
Against – age and last back to back winner was Red Rum.
WHAT A FRIEND – 8 – 11 – 6 – P Nicholls
The first time blinkers certainly brought about a much improved display from What A Friend in the Gold Cup and Sir Alex Ferguson’s charge will probably never have a better chance of landing the National at the weights than he does here.
He is a fiddler of a fence rather than a pure jumper which I think is always a positive, but he is the type of character that will absolutely adore the race or maybe jack it in on the first circuit.
What we do know is that a flat track has always suited him best and purely from a handicapping point of view he has to have a chance it’s just whether you trust him to put his best foot forward on the day….. won the totesport Bowl Chase over the Mildmay fences last year.
For – The class horse left in the entry and well handicapped
Against – enigmatic.
Best of the Rest.......
CALGARY BAY has long been thought of as a Grand National type as he jumps so well, especially on a flat track and despite deteriorating in the last 12 months, sixth in the 2010 Gold Cup, you can make an argument for him that 146 is a very fair mark.
His last two runs at Cheltenham, a track that normally doesn’t bring out the best in him, are rock solid, beaten 3.5L by Wishful Thinking and 7.5L by Poquelin, and if he stays the four and a half miles he looks a lively outsider on his favoured good ground.
You have to go back a couple of seasons to make a case for the Irish raider NOTRE PERE when he was on the verge of championship class winning the Welsh National and then the Guinness Gold Cup at the Punchestown Festival.
Yet even his fourth to Joncol in last year’s Hennessy at Leopardstown doesn’t look too shabby racing here off a mark of 147.
This season there have been glimpses of form that look interesting particularly the way he handled the big fences in the Becher Chase in November, seemingly eating them up through the first two miles, before being stopped in his tracks by another horse at the 15th for one.
His last two runs are safely forgotten on account of class and a mere hunt around in a handicap hurdle and there will be many worse 50/1 shots on the day if there is any dog in the ground.
STATE OF PLAY is a standing dish in the big race and followed his third to Mon Mome off a mark of 150 with a staying on third to Don’t Push It off a five pound lower mark.
With a further three pounds taken off his back this time around, the old man has every chance of reaching the frame again and ground slightly softer than last year would be ideal. This is only his 17th chase start of his career and although the stats say an 11-year-old he has little chance of winning, I suggest 5.5/1 a place looks pretty interesting.
VIC VENTURI, another 11-year-old, has been campaigned solely with this race in mind and had no chance of surviving last year when unseating at the 20th. That was hardly surprising as he had horses coming across him at two fences beforehand so his confidence may have been shaken. He has had a nice prep running into the race and a clear round would surely make him a place candidate.
Finally, have another look at Alan King’s forgotten runner WEST END ROCKER. I loved the way he jumped and bravely battled on to win the Warwick Classic, and his subsequent run in the Grand National Trial at Haydock is easily dismissed as the ground there was much worse than at the Midlands’ venue.
His form on good ground over fences reads very well and with a neat seven week break under his belt, he will arrive in Liverpool fit and fresh and only 8lbs higher than for his Warwick success and remember this is only his 12th start over the larger obstacles.
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