GRAND NATIONAL SPECIALS

1/   Number of Finishers....

The key factor when assessing this popular wager is always the state of the ground with the general conclusion being the more testing the surface the fewer fininshers there will be.

Last year on ground on the dead side of good there were a surprising 17 horses that completed the course. When you look at the make-up of the race, there were at least four 'no hopers' that crossed the finishing line, the majority of which were ridden to finish the race rather than win the National.

The weather has played havoc with ante-post betting season, i.e Cheltenham, and Aintree is going to prove no different with soft ground forecast last week for the big race, but with three days of drying weather allied to a track that drains very well we could get much quicker going on Saturday than we did last year.

It is also worth reiterating that the ground down by the Canal Turn is always softer than on the rest of the track, so there is likely to have some good to soft patches on that part of the track.

I shall be at the meeting so will give an update on the state of the ground every day to keep you updated. However, I think it is a fairly good guess that at worst the ground will be good to soft and at best will be genuinely good all round.

However, it is not as straight forward as just analysing the going as the last four 'good' ground Nationals have yielded finishers of 11,14,11, 12 and 15, yet last year we had 17 finishers on good to soft ground!

This year's race has plenty of dead wood and I would not want to go overboard about 15 plus finishers and the safest play is 12-15 although I would want a saver on over 15. However, at a price of 13/8 there is little room to manouvre on that bet.

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2/ To train the National winner...

This is obviously very subjective with the four quoted trainers being Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins, Nigel Twiston-Davies and David Pipe.

Let's deal with the last named, first. Pipey has five set to run with Piraya and Pablo Du Charmil no hopers...............and Comply Or Die although he likely to get around, he is still not well weighted on his win two years ago and is now bordering on the veteran status.

That leaves Madison Du Berlais (much better chance than his price reflects), certainly well handicapped on the best of his form and The Package.

The last named will be the pick of many, BUT the trend players will tell you that seven-year-olds just do not win. However, trends are there to be broken, 100/1 winner last year, and this horse has all the right credentials for the big race; I think he has an outstanding chance despite his age.

If you couple him with Madison Du Berlais and are not interested in his other three runnners then the top priced 6/1 available is no value in my book as you may as well back the two horses on their own first.

Paul Nicholls is the most likely winner in this book and is of interest to me as both Tricky Trickster and Big Fella Thanks both have outstanding chances. Forget that the latter ran a flat race at Cheltenham last time out, this is more his scenario and I reckon he could be the steamer ont he day.

Nozic is not for me, but as the ground dries out I could see My Will hitting the frame big time.

The 9/2 may not be big enought to tempt me in as I can back the three horses I am interested in at bigger prices individually from the pick of the bookmakers and win marginally more.

Willie Mullins has two entered in Snowy Morning and Arbor Supreme. The former is well weighted on his placed form form two years ago, but even if he does get his favoured good ground, I still feel he doesn't quite last home over the four and a half miles.

Arbor Supreme though has bene crying out for this test, but again the pre-requisite is good ground. If we get that terrain on the day I would rather back Arbor on his own in a single bet of around 16/1 rather than take the 5/1 for the Mullins team.

Twiston-Davies is the outsider of the quartet quoted at 9/1. All of his horses are what you would term to be 'enigmatic'. They have the abiilty to play a part, but are about as consistent as our politicians.

Beat The Boys never runs two races alike, but if he gets into a nice stride pattern could run well. Ballyfitz will stay all right, but jumps like a dog.......I just wonder though if he will respect these fences a bit more. Ollie Magern would be pressed to win this even if he was to bring his career bets form of three years ago here as to my mind he simply doesn't stay this trip, while the trip is also a problem with Irish Raptor despite his good record over the fences and Hello Bud is badly out of form and on the downgrade.

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3/ Weight of the Winner................

Basic fact; 23 of the last 26 winners of the National have carried less than 11 stone, Mon Mome stopped the rot last year, but as the event becomes more competitive, i.e, the weight range becomes more compressed, the majority of the horses at the top of the betting are those set to carry above this mark.

For me the three major logical stumbling blocks under 11 stone are Big Fella Thanks (seemingly everything in his favour this year), State of Play and The Package.

Many will cross the last named off their list because he is a seven-year-old, but the other two look solid.

However, against them you have a whole host of horses set to carry more than 11st with strong claims including Madison, Mon Mome, Black A, Vic V, Comply, Niche M, Tricky, Cloudy, Dream A, My Will and Backstage.

That would seem to be an unfair match up and you would therefore expect the 11st and above to be odds-on fav. However, they are second best in at 11/10 while under 11st is priced up at 4/6 and the reason why? Well simply the trend which we have already referred to.

But with the make-up of the National ever changing and the race becoming more competitive with a top weight of 11-10 the balance of the race could be swinging in the direction of the classier runners at the top of the handicap.

That is merely a theory which has yet to yield siginificant fruition, but last year's victory could well herald a change in the pattern of the National and the 11/10 on the balance of the make-up of this year's race and this year's race alone could prove handsome value.

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