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Grand National Tips
Last updated: 12:02 Saturday, April 9, 2011
Top Tips For Grand National
LISTEN TO THE HOTTEST GRAND NATIONAL TIPS FROM OUR PANEL OF LEADING RACING EXPERTS
The biggest horse race in the world is once again upon us and to help you find the winner the easyodds.com horse racing betting pundits Paul Jacobs and Andy Newton give you their top tips for the Grand National, while Paul also gives you his horse-by-horse guide on the 2011 runners and betting.
Paul Jacobs' 1-2-3-4 Andy Newton's 1-2-3-4
1/BACKSTAGE 1/BACKSTAGE
2/MAJESTIC CONCORDE 2/NICHE MARKET
3/CALGARY BAY 3/ALWAYS WAINING (if he gets in)
4/STATE OF PLAY 4/KILLYGLEN
BEST OUTSIDER – Ornais BEST OUTSIDER - Tidal Bay
DON’T PUSH IT – A 7lbs penalty for his famous success in last year’s race is fair, but maybe not in comparison to the marks landed by What A Friend and Tidal Bay. He will be hoping to become the first horse to land back-to-back Nationals since the mighty Red Rum in 1973/74. This is a better race this year, but as a former winner he demands respect and as soon as the once-a-year punters remember his name from 12 months ago then he’s sure to be one of the stronger Grand National tips in the build-up to the big day. ***
TIDAL BAY – Is a full 7lbs lower than when he last ran in a handicap and his Gold Cup sixth shows he remains in good heart. It’s simple with this horse, he will either love it or hate it AND arguably needs some give in the ground. ***
VIC VENTURI – Was running well at the head of affairs when hampered and unseated at the 20th. Now finds himself 2lbs higher in the weights and looks to have been covered by the assessor. **
WHAT A FRIEND – Blinkers saw him put up a highly competent display of jumping in a career best run in the Gold Cup and Sir Alex Ferguson’s charge will be many a pundits Grand National Tip being thrown in on that form. Daryl Jacob is one of the top chase jockeys around and the perfect partner for him. ****
MAJESTIC CONCORDE - Is 11lbs higher than when winning the Paddy Power at Leopardstown over Christmas, but deserves that mark as a lightly-raced and progressive staying chaser. This trip should be ok and he acts on all types of ground ****
OR NOIR DE SOMOZA – Winner of a Grade Two and a Listed race in France, he has reportedly impressed David Pipe since coming over, but all his best form has been with plenty of give in ground. **
DOONEYS GATE – Hosed up in the Kilcash Chase, but looks set to go for the shorter Topham Chase in which he ran so well in last year. ***
BIG FELLA THANKS – Was placed in the 2010 Grand National and has moved from Paul Nicholls to Ferdy Murphy and showed he retains all of his ability this season. But can even the brilliant West Witton trainer enhance his stamina reserves? ***
BALLABRIGGS – Has been aimed at this ever since landing the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last year. But he was legless at the end of that extended three miles and has never raced beyond 3m2f before. **
ARBOR SUPREME – Second, behind stablemate The Midnight Club, in the Bobbyjo Chase back in February he seems to act on most ground, but interestingly does have a 10lb pull for the length he was beaten that day, and although he looks the stable’s second string he shouldn’t be totally ruled out. Unseated at the Chair last year. ***
THE TOTHER ONE – Has a real motor inside when he consents to put his best foot forward and is feasibly handicapped. However, clean jumping is not his forte and he is merely making up the numbers. *
NICHE MARKET – 3lbs lower than last year when he pulled up on the second circuit after making a horrendous mistake at the 12th. As an Irish National winner he should stay and is in the each-way mix here. ***
THE MIDNIGHT CLUB – Is only 4lbs higher than winning the Grade Two Bobbyjo Chase last time out. Staying was always going to be his game, but needs to brush up his jumping to win this. A clear round would make him many people’s idea of a strong Grand National tip for 2011, especially with Ruby Walsh, who’s won this prize twice, set to ride ****
BACKSTAGE – Looked to be moving up in menacing fashion last year when taken out by a loose horse at the 20th. Has been freshened up by a spell of pointing and is able to run off the same mark here; major chance from in-form yard who won this race back in 2007. *****
CHIEF DAN GEORGE – Veteran campaigner who took a nasty fall last time out at Cheltenham. Seemingly didn’t get home when last tried at a marathon trip in the Scottish National and only outside claims at best. **
SILVER BY NATURE – Put up a tremendous weight carrying performance to land the Grand National Trial for the second successive year at Haydock. His trainer Lucinda Russell is coming to form at the right time, he also jumps superbly, but does have a question mark over the ground. ***
CALGARY BAY – Has always looked to be an Aintree horse and will be the Grand National tip of several pundits looking for value. Arguably the best jumper of a fence in the field and feasibly handicapped here on a flat track which should suit. ***
KILLYGLEN – Level track, good/fast ground and a solid pace are his set-up. He is surely a lot better than his run at Doncaster last time out where he went too fast for his own good. With his solid jumping this Irish raider looks a back-to-lay option for me. ***
OSCAR TIME - Has five lengths to find with The Midnight Club on Bobbyjo Chase form but looked far from fully wound up that day. The 4m4f won’t prove a problem and he has the services of the Gold Cup winning jockey here who has a fab record over these fences. ****
BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE – Couldn’t hold Poker De Sivola in the National Hunt Chase at the Chelteham Festival last year but showed himself as good as ever when second in the Paddy Power behind Majestic Concorde in a race hasn’t really worked out. On the plus side he is lightly-raced and could have more improvement in him. ***
COMPLY OR DIE - Winner of this race in 2008 off 139, second in 2009 (154) and then 12th last year off 153. The old boy has been dropped 9lbs and granted fast ground should complete, but won’t be winning again. *
NORTHERN ALLIANCE - Good ground is essential to this 10-year-old who was not disgraced on testing going on his last three outings. Won the 2009 Kerry National off 140 and ran well in the race last year. A mark this time of 144 gives him e/w claims here, but yet to prove he stays this far. **
QUINZ – Beat the smart Burton Port as a staying novice hurdler and has continued that kind of form into the chasing arena culminating in a career best effort in the Racing Post Chase. Likes to race prominently, which is an advantage, and if he stays will surely be involved, but be wary - he’s bidding to become the first 7 year-old since 1940 to win. ****
QUOLIBET – Reportedly well regarded, but ran a stinker in the Cross Country on his British debut at the Cheltenham Festival and easy to overlook here. *
GRAND SLAM HERO – The winner of the Summer Plate at Market Rasen last year, his form has deteriorated since that win off a mark of 129 and he remains a stone higher in the weights. **
ROLL ALONG – Another horse for which good ground is essential, but he is a shadow of the horse that last tasted victory in the United House at Ascot in Nov ’08 off a mark of 149 yet has only been dropped to 143 for this. *
KING FONTAINE - Has progressed well in the last two seasons and jumps and travels like a classy horse in his races. Problem is the trip here which could bottom him out from the Melling Road. **
STATE OF PLAY – Once again freshness proved the key here last year when he reached the frame, getting outpaced in the second third of the race before running on past beaten horses. Maybe a bit more give would suit better and handicapper has been kind once again, dropped further 3lbs - arguably the each-way Grand National tip of this year’s race.****
HELLO BUD – Former Scottish National winner, jumped with great aplomb last year, but surprisingly went out like a light from the second last, maybe the years are catching up on him. *
PIRAYA - Beaten 166 lengths when 13th in this 12 months ago. I don't think he'll even repeat that feat, let alone win. *
IN COMPLIANCE – Ran as well as could be expected in the Topham last year, but not for the first time in his career found precious little off the bridle. This is almost certainly not his trip. *
SANTA’S SON – Stays two and a half miles at a hefty push at best and is not a Grand National betting proposition. *
WEST END ROCKER – His won over Minella Boys wasn’t the strongest renewal of the Warwick Classic, but he won despite the ground and his subsequent run at Haydock is best excused. Should see out this trip and the return to a quicker surface is certainly in his favour. ***
BLUESEA CRACKER – Recently purchased by last year's winning owner JP McManus. Stays all day, won the Irish National off a mark of 131, but the handicapper looked as though he has her in his grip when she was a well held 6th, beaten 32 lengths, by The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo. Badly needs rain, while the last mare to win the Grand National was Nickel Coin in 1951. **
CAN’T BUY TIME- Was never near the pace last year when falling first time around at the Canal Turn (8th). Inconsistent since and hard to see him jumping around let alone winning. *
CHARACTER BUILDING - The 2009 Kim Muir hero has looked patently short of pace recently and could only make modest late inroads when 7th of 40, 37 lengths off Don’t Push It last year. Produced a better run behind Always Right last time, but has plenty to find on form - Nina Carberry is set to ride. **
ORNAIS – Is one of the more interesting outsiders in the field having not been over raced in his career and shapes as though a real test of stamina on good ground could suit. Slightly disappointing when second to Fort View at Newbury but could be a lively outsider here. ****
SURFACE TO AIR – Winner of the Summer National off 132 in 2008 has only raced once since then. Is still 8lbs higher. *
THAT’S RHYTHM – One of the more interesting outsiders in the race having run Nacarat to 14 lengths in the Charlie Hall. Could go well at a huge price with a clear round. ***
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