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Grand National Trends

By Andy Newton

Last updated: 11:12 Friday, April 8, 2011

Grand National Trends


Year Horse Trainer Jockey Age Weight Country Previous Run Form Last Race (days) Winning Odds
Grand National (Handicap) 4 1/2m - Aintree
2010 Don't Push It J O'Neill AP McCoy 10 11-5 UK PU Chelt 23PU 23 10/1jfav
2009 Mon Mome V Williams L Treadwell 9 11-0 UK 8th Uttox 278 21 100/1
2008 Comply or Die D Pipe T Murphy 9 10-9 UK 1st Newc PU21 40 7/1 jfav
2007 Silver Birch G Elliott R Power 10 10-6 Ire 2nd Chelt 242 23 33/1
2006 Numbersixvalverde M Brassil N Madden 10 10-8 Ire 3rd Naas 443 26 11/1
2005 Hedgehunter W Mullins R Walsh 9 11-1 Ire 1st Fairy 611 48 7/1 fav
2004 Amberleigh House D McCain G Lee 12 10-10 UK 5th Don 2PU5 27 16/1
2003 Monty’s Pass J Mangon B Geraghty 10 10-7 Ire 4th Punch 364 19 16/1
2002 Bindaree N Twiston-Davies J Culloty 8 10-4 UK 7th Chelt 367 24 20/1
2001 Red Marauder N Mason R Guest 11 10-11 UK Fell Hay 52F 41 33/1
2000 Papillon T Walsh R Walsh 9 10-12 Ire 3rd Leop 493 19 10/1
1999 Bobbyjo T Carberry P Carberry 9 10-0 Ire 1st D Royal 541 23 10/1
1998 Earth Summit N Twiston-Davies C Llewellyn 10 10-5 UK 5th Hay 165 34 7/1 fav
1997 Lord Gyllene S Brookshaw T Dobbin 9 10-0 UK 2nd Utto 112 22 14/1
1996 Rough Quest T Casey M FitzGerald 10 10-7 UK 2nd Chelt F12 16 7/1 fav
1995 Royal Athlete Mrs J Pitman J Titley 12 10-6 UK 5th Don 625 34 40/1
1994 Minnehoma M C Pipe R Dunwoody 11 10-8 UK 7th Chelt PU17 22 16/1
1993 VOID RACE








1992 Party Politics N Gaselee C Llewellyn 8 10-7 UK 5th Hay 255 34 14/1
1991 Seagram D Barons N Hawke 11 10-6 UK 1st Chelt 131 23 12/1
1990 Mr Frisk K Bailey M Armytage 11 10-6 UK 4th Chelt 354 25 16/1

20 year trends (note 1993 was a void race)


  • 20/20 - Ran no more than 48 days ago
  • 17/20 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS
  • 17/20 - Ran no more than 34 days ago
  • 15/20 - Returned a double-figure price
  • 13/20 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS
  • 14/20 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
  • 11/20 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
  • 12/20 - Aged 9 or 10 years-old
  • 6/20 - Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 8 years)
  • 7/20 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
  • 5/20 - Won by the favourite or joint favourite
  • 2/20 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • 2/20 - Ridden by Ruby Walsh
  • 0/20 - Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

    Andy Newton's Grand National Betting Trends Verdict

    It’s that time of year again as I try and whittle the 40 strong Grand National field to a more manageably number by applying some key big race trends to the line-up.

    Yes, we’ll still need a big chunk of lady luck as after all your hard work crossing out the runners it could easily end in tears with your fancy getting brought down by a loose horse – but that’s the National!

    First up and probably, in my book, the biggest trend of recent times is check the number of days your horse last ran. A monster 20 of the last 20 winners all ran within 48 days before tasting Aintree glory, suggesting that fitness is key. When applying this I would always give a few days grace to runners mainly because the National can fall on slightly different weekends some years, so it would be foolish to totally stick to 48 days – Majestic Concorde and Becauseicouldntsee are notably runners that fall down here.

    If you want to take that stat a bit further then it’s worth nothing that 17 of the last 20 actually ran no more than 34 days ago – again give or take a few days, but if this is to be repeated then you can rule out the likely favourite The Midnight Club, Quinz and Oscar Time.

    Next up is the weight. Ok, Don’t Push It bucked the trend somewhat 12 months ago to win with 11-5, but make this burden your absolute cut off. Yes, the race does seem to be going more and more to a classier type at the top end of the weights, but this still doesn’t get away from the fact that you have to go back to 1977 (Red Rum) to find the last winner that carried more than 11-5 to victory – since then 94 have tried and all failed! Bad news if you think Don’t Push It is going to win back-to-back races with 11-10 to carry, while some others this knocks out are Tidal Bay, What A Friend and Vic Venturi.

    Right, it’s the age next. Simply rule out any horse aged 7 or less - you have to go back to 1940 to find the last 7 year-old to win. 9 and 10 year-olds are the most winning age group with a monster 16 of the last 17 winners falling into this bracket, while don’t be too put off if you fancy one of the older brigade as we’ve had two 12 year-olds and two 11 year-olds go in recent years.

    The market leader has won 25% of the last 20 runnings, so wait until the day to see if there’s any last minute gambles – there always a few! 6 of the last 20 were trained in Ireland, but they’ve not won the last three now – maybe they are due one!

    Ok, so based on these trends here are the ones I’ve got it down to – 2 main bets and 4 outsiders. Don’t forget if you wanted you can always perm up a number of selections in a forecast or tricast if you’re really feeling lucky – fingers crossed!

    Main Selections: BACKSTAGE & NICHE MARKET
    Outsiders (E/W): KILLYGLEN, CAN’T BUY TIME, ORNAIS & ALWAYS WAINING (if he gets in the race) 




    Latest 2011 Grand National betting odds


    Combination Forecast Perms   
    3 Selections = 6 Bets
    4 Selections = 12 Bets
    5 Selections = 20 Bets

    Combination Tricast Perms 
    3 Selections = 6 Bets
    4 Selections = 24 Bets
    5 Selections = 60 Bets


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