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Grand National Trends
Last updated: 11:12 Friday, April 8, 2011
Grand National Trends
| Year |
Horse |
Trainer |
Jockey |
Age |
Weight |
Country |
Previous Run |
Form |
Last Race (days) |
Winning Odds |
| Grand National (Handicap) 4 1/2m - Aintree |
| 2010 |
Don't Push It |
J O'Neill |
AP McCoy |
10 |
11-5 |
UK |
PU Chelt |
23PU |
23 |
10/1jfav |
| 2009 |
Mon Mome |
V Williams |
L Treadwell |
9 |
11-0 |
UK |
8th Uttox |
278 |
21 |
100/1 |
| 2008 |
Comply or Die |
D Pipe |
T Murphy |
9 |
10-9 |
UK |
1st Newc |
PU21 |
40 |
7/1 jfav |
| 2007 |
Silver Birch |
G Elliott |
R Power |
10 |
10-6 |
Ire |
2nd Chelt |
242 |
23 |
33/1 |
| 2006 |
Numbersixvalverde |
M Brassil |
N Madden |
10 |
10-8 |
Ire |
3rd Naas |
443 |
26 |
11/1 |
| 2005 |
Hedgehunter |
W Mullins |
R Walsh |
9 |
11-1 |
Ire |
1st Fairy |
611 |
48 |
7/1 fav |
| 2004 |
Amberleigh House |
D McCain |
G Lee |
12 |
10-10 |
UK |
5th Don |
2PU5 |
27 |
16/1 |
| 2003 |
Monty’s Pass |
J Mangon |
B Geraghty |
10 |
10-7 |
Ire |
4th Punch |
364 |
19 |
16/1 |
| 2002 |
Bindaree |
N Twiston-Davies |
J Culloty |
8 |
10-4 |
UK |
7th Chelt |
367 |
24 |
20/1 |
| 2001 |
Red Marauder |
N Mason |
R Guest |
11 |
10-11 |
UK |
Fell Hay |
52F |
41 |
33/1 |
| 2000 |
Papillon |
T Walsh |
R Walsh |
9 |
10-12 |
Ire |
3rd Leop |
493 |
19 |
10/1 |
| 1999 |
Bobbyjo |
T Carberry |
P Carberry |
9 |
10-0 |
Ire |
1st D Royal |
541 |
23 |
10/1 |
| 1998 |
Earth Summit |
N Twiston-Davies |
C Llewellyn |
10 |
10-5 |
UK |
5th Hay |
165 |
34 |
7/1 fav |
| 1997 |
Lord Gyllene |
S Brookshaw |
T Dobbin |
9 |
10-0 |
UK |
2nd Utto |
112 |
22 |
14/1 |
| 1996 |
Rough Quest |
T Casey |
M FitzGerald |
10 |
10-7 |
UK |
2nd Chelt |
F12 |
16 |
7/1 fav |
| 1995 |
Royal Athlete |
Mrs J Pitman |
J Titley |
12 |
10-6 |
UK |
5th Don |
625 |
34 |
40/1 |
| 1994 |
Minnehoma |
M C Pipe |
R Dunwoody |
11 |
10-8 |
UK |
7th Chelt |
PU17 |
22 |
16/1 |
| 1993 |
VOID RACE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1992 |
Party Politics |
N Gaselee |
C Llewellyn |
8 |
10-7 |
UK |
5th Hay |
255 |
34 |
14/1 |
| 1991 |
Seagram |
D Barons |
N Hawke |
11 |
10-6 |
UK |
1st Chelt |
131 |
23 |
12/1 |
| 1990 |
Mr Frisk |
K Bailey |
M Armytage |
11 |
10-6 |
UK |
4th Chelt |
354 |
25 |
16/1 |
20 year trends (note 1993 was a void race)
20/20 - Ran no more than 48 days ago
17/20 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS
17/20 - Ran no more than 34 days ago
15/20 - Returned a double-figure price
13/20 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS
14/20 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
11/20 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/20 - Aged 9 or 10 years-old
6/20 - Trained in Ireland (inc 4 of the last 8 years)
7/20 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/20 - Won by the favourite or joint favourite
2/20 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/20 - Ridden by Ruby Walsh
0/20 - Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS
Andy Newton's Grand National Betting Trends Verdict
It’s that time of year again as I try and whittle the 40 strong Grand National field to a more manageably number by applying some key big race trends to the line-up.
Yes, we’ll still need a big chunk of lady luck as after all your hard work crossing out the runners it could easily end in tears with your fancy getting brought down by a loose horse – but that’s the National!
First up and probably, in my book, the biggest trend of recent times is check the number of days your horse last ran. A monster 20 of the last 20 winners all ran within 48 days before tasting Aintree glory, suggesting that fitness is key. When applying this I would always give a few days grace to runners mainly because the National can fall on slightly different weekends some years, so it would be foolish to totally stick to 48 days – Majestic Concorde and Becauseicouldntsee are notably runners that fall down here.
If you want to take that stat a bit further then it’s worth nothing that 17 of the last 20 actually ran no more than 34 days ago – again give or take a few days, but if this is to be repeated then you can rule out the likely favourite The Midnight Club, Quinz and Oscar Time.
Next up is the weight. Ok, Don’t Push It bucked the trend somewhat 12 months ago to win with 11-5, but make this burden your absolute cut off. Yes, the race does seem to be going more and more to a classier type at the top end of the weights, but this still doesn’t get away from the fact that you have to go back to 1977 (Red Rum) to find the last winner that carried more than 11-5 to victory – since then 94 have tried and all failed! Bad news if you think Don’t Push It is going to win back-to-back races with 11-10 to carry, while some others this knocks out are Tidal Bay, What A Friend and Vic Venturi.
Right, it’s the age next. Simply rule out any horse aged 7 or less - you have to go back to 1940 to find the last 7 year-old to win. 9 and 10 year-olds are the most winning age group with a monster 16 of the last 17 winners falling into this bracket, while don’t be too put off if you fancy one of the older brigade as we’ve had two 12 year-olds and two 11 year-olds go in recent years.
The market leader has won 25% of the last 20 runnings, so wait until the day to see if there’s any last minute gambles – there always a few! 6 of the last 20 were trained in Ireland, but they’ve not won the last three now – maybe they are due one!
Ok, so based on these trends here are the ones I’ve got it down to – 2 main bets and 4 outsiders. Don’t forget if you wanted you can always perm up a number of selections in a forecast or tricast if you’re really feeling lucky – fingers crossed!
Main Selections: BACKSTAGE & NICHE MARKET
Outsiders (E/W): KILLYGLEN, CAN’T BUY TIME, ORNAIS & ALWAYS WAINING (if he gets in the race)
Latest 2011 Grand National betting odds
Combination Forecast Perms
3 Selections = 6 Bets
4 Selections = 12 Bets
5 Selections = 20 Bets
Combination Tricast Perms
3 Selections = 6 Bets
4 Selections = 24 Bets
5 Selections = 60 Bets
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