Past Scottish Grand National Winners

2010 – Merigo (18/1)
2009 – Hello Bud ( 12/1)
2008 – Iris de Balme (66/1)
2007 – Hot Weld (14/1)
2006 – Run for Paddy (33/1)
2005 – Joes Edge (20/1)
2004 – Grey Abbey (12/1)
2003 – Ryalux (15/2)
2002 – Take Control (20/1)
2001 – Gingembre (12/1)

Key Trends

10/10 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
9/10 – Returned a double-figure price
8/10 – Carried 10-9 or less
4/10 – Won by an 8 year-old
3/10 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/10 – Trained by Ferdy Murphy
1/10 – Won by a 7 year-old or younger
0/10 – Won by the favourite

After Aintree last Saturday it’s all about Ayr this weekend as Grand National season heads north of the border.

Despite being run over half a mile shorter than the Mersyside version at 4miles you will still need a horse with bundles of stamina, but what are the main trends to look out for when eying up the field?

Most of the focus will surround top-weight Neptunes Collonges, as Paul Nicholls’ grey will be hoping to shoulder a monster 11-12 to victory. Grey Abbey carried exactly that weight to victory back in 2004, but before that you have to go back to 1974, when a certain Red Rum lumped 11-13 to the winners’ enclosure, to find another horse to win with sure a burden.

The fact Neptunes is in the race will mean that all the others will carry less than 11-0, but 80% of the recent winners carried 10-9 or less meaning if this is to be repeated, albeit in this unusual race this year, then this stat knocks out the likely favourite and recent Cheltenham Festival winner Chicago Grey and Alan King’s Blazing Bailey.

Another trend that looks to be against the likely jolly is that not a single favourite has gone in during the last 10 years, with 90% returning at double-figure odds – so don’t be afraid to side with one at a price with two 20/1’s a 33/1 shot and a huge 66/1 winner in the last 10 runners.

When looking at the age of your fancy then it’s best to go with one that’s got a bit of time under their belts with only one 7 year-old or younger going in – bad news if you fancy the likes of The Minack, Fredo or Be There In Five. By far the best age is 8. Four of the last 10 winners went the way of an 8 year-old, while if you go back over the last 15 years then you’ll see that 7 won - almost 50%!

In terms on trainers then look no further than Ferdy Murphy and Nigel Twiston-Davies. Since 1992 the pair have won the race three times each, while other notably handlers to mention are Paul Nicholls, who won this in 1997, and last year’s winning trainer Andrew Parker who once again sends Merigo to post.

So, in conclusion there’s plenty that fit the bill, but, I guess, the most notably thing based on the trends is that there’s a case to be made for taking on Chicago Grey with weight, price and being the likely favourite all against him.

The ones that make most appeal in the each-way market are:

POKER DE SIVOLA: Trained by three-time winner of this race Ferdy Murphy we last saw him running sixth in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival, but he was only beaten 15 lengths that day. He should relish this 4m trip having won over this distance at the festival last season, while in Graham Lee he’ll have every assistance from the saddle. Yes, he was pulled up in this race 12 months ago, but he probably had a harder race before then, while he was hampered by a faller that day. Add in that at 8 years-old he falls into the best age category, and finally with just 10-0 to carry this will be the lightest weight he’s carried for some time.

GONE TO LUNCH: Jeremy Scott has his string in fantastic order and at the time of writing (Friday) he's had 5 winners from his last 8 runners (63%). That alone is a massive reason to have a small each-way interest on his veteran here, but if you throw in the melting pot that he's finished runner-up in this race for the past 2 seasons then at around 25/1 he rates a solid option for those of you looking for one at a price. Ok, he was well beaten in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham last time, but that was his first real run since last April (ran in 2 points) and despite not getting any younger at 11 years-old I'm hoping that race would have blown a few cobwebs away and in Nick Schofield he's got an able pilot too. He's only got 10-0 to carry this time and if you think that in his last two runs in this race he's carried 10-13 and 11-10 then he's another that will think he's been let loose.

BALLYFITZ: There’s a case to be made for the Twiston-Davies team being a shade out of form at present, but if memory serves me correct I think they only need a handful of winners to get to the 100 mark before the season ends next week and with their record in the race this one could go well at a price. Ok, so at 11 years-old he’s not getting any younger, but he was a decent second in the Midlands National last month, so the trip will be fine, while with the trainer’s excellent record in the race this is a further plus. A shade more rain might be better, but he’s won on good ground a few years ago at Cheltenham and if David England can keep him interested early on then he’s certainly one that will be staying on when others have cried enough.

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