St Leger Trends

Verdict

We last saw him winning the Great Voltigeur by an impressive 4 lengths and with six of the last 10 St Leger winners taking in that race it’s become one of the best trials in recent years. Add in that three of the last 10 actually won that York contest then this further backs up just what kind of chance Rewilding has.

So, we know that he’s got this trial race in his favour, but are there any recent trends that he falls down on?

Well, the quick answer is – NO. He ticks so many boxes that I ran out of ink when assessing his chances!

All of the last 10 victors were placed last time out – tick. 7 of the last 10 won their previous race – tick. 7 of the last 10 were trained by a UK-based handler – tick. 6 of the last 10 were won by the favourite – tick. 3 of the last 10 winners were ridden by Frankie Dettori – tick. And, finally, 2 of the last 10 winners were trained by Godolphin – tick!

The other thing to note is the state of the ground. They’ve had plenty of the wet stuff in the Doncaster area over the last few days, so expect the going to be good-to-soft or worse come Saturday. So have the layers finally got something to cling onto regarding the market leader? Again, the answer is NO – Yes, he won the Voltigeur on good ground, and was third in the Epsom Derby on an even faster surface, but he was a very decent second over in France back in April in soft ground, while the time before that he won on heavy – based on this, if we do get more rain, it’s clear there should be no issues on this front.

Of the others Irish Derby runner-up Midas Touch is respected with the winner that day, Cape Blanco, advertising the form by winning the Irish Champion Stakes last week, and although he’s seen the back of Rewilding twice already this season over this longer trip he should be able to get closer this time.

The Gordon Stakes, run at Goodwood, is the other trial to take note of, with three of the last 10 winners taking in this race. The winner of that contest was Rebel Soldier, but he’s an absentee here, however, the second and third do go – Dandino and Arctic Cosmos. Both were big closers that day, so this extra yardage should not be an issue, but of the pair I’d have to side with the former only because John Gosden’s Arctic Cosmos is yet to run on ground this soft.

My final fancy, and although he doesn’t really fit into being a trends horse, is Ted Spread. This is 100% due to the ground after being unbeaten every time he’s raced on conditions that were good-to-soft, with his most recent being a win in the Chester Vase back in May. Yes, he’s got around 13 lengths to find on the Godolphin runner based on their Great Voltigeur run, but this longer trip and, more importantly, this softer ground will bring them a lot closer this time.

Recommended Bets
4pts win – Rewilding
1pt e/w - Ted Spread

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2% IN-RUNNING COMMISSION

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