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Remind me next time

The 2015 UK General Election is the biggest political betting event in years, with punters all over the country keen to put their money on who will emerge from the race victorious. Our political expert Ray Corniche runs through the main election spread markets and tells you why Sporting Index is a great place to get started with political betting…

Sporting Index General Election Spreads

The General Election on May 7th promises to be one of the hardest fought in recent years with the distinct possibility of a hung parliament and therefore another coalition government on the horizon. However, before all the likely behind the scenes bartering, bidding and back stabbing all our votes have to be made throughout Great Britain and Northern Ireland.    

One of the main factors to take on board is that almost 22% of all votes will be cast by now as postal players send off their ‘X’s well before the majority of us lurch into the various polling stations around the country.

It is also worth remembering that the various polls being published, literally on a day to day basis, are likely to be less accurate in the current political climate where no one party is clearly ahead and sailing into power. So beware putting too much weighting on these betting tools when assessing whether to wager one or another.

The Conservatives are highly likely to be the party to accrue the most seats, but not record an overall majority. There are 650 seats in total up for grabs and at the moment the spread laid out by Sporting Index for David Cameron’s party is283-287, of course this can and will change on the run-up to and during the election itself.

The Tory party amassed 307 seats in 2010, 97 more than in the previous election, while Labour hit the mark in 258 constituencies, a loss of 91.

Those two figures show you that it was virtually a sparring match between the two major powers with the Lib Dems (-5) making a less than significant move, but in the overall context of the election still holding the balance of power.

But this year is going to be very different as there is almost sure to be a meze of smaller parties holding the key to forming a new government, not just the Lib Dems, but the SNP, certain to gain seats in Scotland at Labour’s expense and UKIP, along with Labour, set to take a net again away from the Lib Dems and the Conservatives in Wales and in particular the south of England.

By far the biggest influence on voters in Scotland has been the likeability factor of the new SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon. Whereas Alex Salmond was viewed as a gifted orator, he was also perceived as more than a bit arrogant, but Sturgeon is viewed as being more grounded, easier to trust and nowhere near as smarmy. Sporting Index see the spread for the SNP as 45-47, so at least an increase in 39 seats.

There are 59 seats up for grabs north of the border and the Conservatives will go home empty handed this time around so it’s a matter of how many the SNP can steal from Labour and the Lib Dems. If the level of support for independence is anything to go by it could once again be significant and we fancy they will hit the 51 mark so the advice is to buy at45-47.

The protest vote against the current government in the rest of the UK, if the polls are anything to go by and they have been hugely volatile this year, is not straightforward as UKIP bid to steal seats that you would have presumed would have been ripe for the taking for Labour.

The by-election wins in the last five years for UKIP seem to herald an awakening of the British public to a credible alternative to the big three, or should that be big two.

With the view that the Lib Dems had little or no effect on policies even as a partner in power, albeit a junior one in the coalition, the obvious protest vote is for UKIP, but amid a number of scandals their support in the polls has waned in the past six months.

But bear in mind UKIP will now stand in 624 of the 650 Westminster constituencies and the spread of 3-5 could underestimate even their recently tarnished reputation, so we feel it is worth buying and fancy anything up to eight seats could be a realistic aim. That would mean a swing in several seats of anything up to 5%, but this is set to be a very volatile selection so think left of centre.

Spread Betting – Getting Started

Spread betting is rather like playing stocks and shares as you are wagering on how high or low a market will go and to what specific degree.

Sporting Index will offer you a Bid Price and an Offer Price, the difference in these two figures is known as the Spread. 

So for example, if the spread for the number of Conservative seats is 283-287 and you want to sell because you think they will get less than 283 seats, if you bet £1 a point and they win 280 seats you will win 283-280=3 multiplied by your stake (£1) and so make a profit of £3. However, if you sell and they win 290 seats, you would lose £7 (290 minus 283).

This Sporting Index training video is a good introduction to the basics:



Sporting Index also have a very generous welcome offer whereby they give £100 in non-withdrawable cash for new customers to use in the first week. On certain markets you can bet as low as 10p so it's a great opportunity to get used to the thrill of spread betting for minimal stakes (using Sporting Index's money of course!). Join Sporting Index today to start taking advantage.